Terry McMahon's Awesome Blog

I was shocked and outraged today to discover that MSNBC analyst and Congressional Quarterly columnist Craig Crawford has just written a book called, I shit you not, Attack the Messenger: How Politicians Turn You Against the Media. The title is both amusing and ironic, because it implies politicians turn the public against the media to deflect attention from their own transgressions, whereas actually the public should be turned against Craig Crawford because he's an idiot.

I am confident that Craig Crawford is a wonderful guy, and I'm sure he's a great father to a fantastic family. I'm so confident of this, because he obviously spends all his work hours being a great dad when he should be studying politics. On the Edwards campaign, Craig Crawford had the rep among the media-monitoring team and our fellow TV fans as being the most reliable spewer of conventional wisdom in TV news, no matter how out of touch with reality he may be.

It's all the worse because I appreciate Crawford's apparent focus on the Bush administration moves like attacking Dan Rather, Helen Thomas, and Newsweek, while creating their own news reports and relying on reliably Republican and dreadfully unqualified former male escorts during press conferences. But if the guy never has any insight on TV or in his column, why would I want to read his book?

Let me give a couple examples. I remember in mid-2003 seeing Craig Crawford say on MSNBC that he had reserved hotel rooms for the November filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. Yes, it's what you think it is: he wanted to be there when Hillary Clinton registered to run for president. I did a real quick Nexis search, and the first result I clicked on, a CNBC appearance with Brian Williams on 11/13/2003, yields pretty much the same thing:

DAWN FRATANGELO, anchor: This is an important weekend for the Democratic Party in Iowa. Craig Crawford, a CNBC political analyst, is with us tonight from Des Moines.

Good place to be, because this is a big weekend for the Democrats there, right?

Mr. CRAIG CRAWFORD (Congressional Quarterly): It sure is, Dawn. They're all coming out, and Hillary Clinton will be here.

FRATANGELO: And Hillary Clinton, you believe--you're talking a lot about her. November 21st is the cutoff date to file in New Hampshire. Are you--do you believe that she could slip in to New Hampshire?

Mr. CRAWFORD: It's running out of time, isn't it? I'm going to go out there to New Hampshire next week and wait for her. It's sort of like waiting for Godot, though, I think, or the Maytag repairman. I don't think Hillary will get in but it's a possibility. It's not out of the--out of this world. Believing Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2004 is much like believing in UFOs, Dawn. You know, some people do and some people don't. I'm not sure I rule out UFOs either. [Terry side note: At this point in the campaign, the correct answer to her question is "No."]

FRATANGELO: But they're--you--you're talking about the weekend for the Democrats, the big dinner there. This will be the caucuses there, this will be before the debate hosted by Tom Brokaw. How important is this weekend for the Democrats?

Mr. CRAWFORD: Well, this is getting to the point.
...
It--it--all the premium is on organization. This weekend all the candidates are here. Hillary Clinton headlines a big dinner, the big annual dinner of the Iowa Democratic Party tomorrow night. Got a lot of people scratching their heads. If she wants to dampen speculation about her presidential ambitions, coming here to Iowa to give a speech to 7500 Democrats is kind of a weird way to do that.

See what I mean? Even when it's long become apparent she really wasn't running, he still brings every conversation back to her. For the record, having Hillary keynote the Iowa Jefferson-Jackon Dinner was a great move for everyone, because it meant the keynote speaker was someone who didn't have a horse in that race. She speaks on Democratic values in general; the candidates discuss the particulars.

Fortunately, Crawford storms ahead into another blunder:

FRATANGELO: But the Democrats have to look at some numbers. One number is good for them. The falling approval rating for the president dropped a bit this week. The other number they have to be concerned about is that President Bush passed the $100 million fund-raising mark. How can they compete with that?

Mr. CRAWFORD: I know. When you look at the new economic numbers coming out, company growth as high as 20 percent in some sectors, and then President Bush, as you say, raising $100 million in six months, and 1 1/2 million in Florida today, I look at these Democrats and look at that news and think it's like that movie "Sixth Sense," you know, where the clairvoyant boy says, 'I see dead people.' Sometimes when I look at the Democrats, I think of that line.

FRATANGELO: OK, Craig, I'm sure they appreciate that.

Mr. CRAWFORD: Yeah, I guess.

Yeah, I guess too. Except that the DNC outraised the RNC in 2004. I'm pretty sure Bush wound up outraising Kerry, but it wasn't by much, and the Democratic candidates as a whole may have outraised the Republican field as a whole (i.e. Bush). Did anyone expect this to happen? Not really. But how are we supposed to take this guy seriously when he treats his warmed-over predictions like gospel, and then keeps getting them wrong? How about this, homeslice: if you're not sure, don't act like you are.

That's what's causing the disconnect between the press and the public these days. Journalists speak with authority, and they're wrong more often than they're not. (Does anyone remember when pollster John Zogby announced that Kerry would win on the Daily Show a week before the election?) National Journal, the influential insider publication, did a weekly survey of top insiders in fall 2003 on who would win the Democratic nomination. I remember one week, out of 50 votes, Dean had 48 and Edwards had 2. (Two Edwards advisors were inexplicably included in the voting pool.) Sure, I thought Dean was going to win too, but what kind of record of accuracy is this? I know, it's tough going to Georgetown dinner parties and admitting you really don't know who's going to win. But you're not an oracle, so stop acting like it. Maybe then we can talk about how unfair it is to attack the messenger.