Terry McMahon's Awesome Blog

Let's be clear on this: If Elizabeth Edwards is healthy, John Edwards is going to run for president in 2008. As most readers know, I am a big John Edwards fan, and I have to say I'm pretty much committed for 2008. I've declined to gush about his greatness too much here, but I think it's worth revisiting the state of Edwards' political career.

The biggest concern facing John Edwards is the perception that, having no official position, he has no voice in the debate and as a result will fade from the public consciousness long before 2008. I disagree pretty strongly with this assessment, for two reasons.

There is plenty of historical precedent for candidates in Edwards' situation to be successful. First, I'll bring to mind Walter Mondale, who also returned to private citizenship after he and Carter lost in 1980. Mondale did something or other for the next four years, yet still won the Democratic nomination in 1984. Sure, he lost 49 states to Ronald Reagan, but for an even better example, let's take a look at the Gipper himself. In 1980, not only had Reagan not been in office for the four years since he had previously run (he almost beat President Ford in the primary in 1976), he had even been out of office the first time: his second term as California governor ended in January 1975. But Reagan didn't disappear off the political landscape, and now we can thank him and his persistence for giving us the supply-side economic theory that's still paying dividends today!

So I'm not that concerned about Edwards' chances of staying in the limelight, also because he's doing a ton of stuff. Don't forget, with the primary campaigns launching in early 2007, he's only got to fill up two years, not four. And even so, here's a quick list of all the stuff he's doing and will do:

• He's touring the country to talk to Democratic groups. According to the Charlotte Observer, he's hit 15 states since he left office in January and he's already scheduled trips to 8 more. That's how you keep Democratic activists interested in you.
  
• He's the chairman of the UNC Center on Poverty. This is a great way for him to focus on - and get publicity for - what may be the most underrated issue in American politics. Plus, let's not forget, when Robert F. Kennedy made poverty his signature issue in 1968, he was on track to win the presidency before he was assassinated. So besides being the right thing to do, raising the issue of poverty is smart politics too.
  
• He's the co-chair, with former VP candidate Jack Kemp, of the Council on Foreign Relations task force on Russia. Now, I believe pretty strongly that a candidate with good values will do fine on foreign policy if given the relevant information, i.e. I don't think foreign policy experience should be a major concern. That said, this will give Edwards the appearance of becoming a much better candidate on foreigh policy, and unfortunately, on campaigns appearances often mean as much as reality. He also went to England to meet with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown a few weeks ago for some reason. (Side note: If you're not sure the Council on Foreign Relations is well connected enough, read this example of how crazy folks think it's a major cog in the Illuminati/Freemasons/secret society machine. That stuff's awesome.)
  
• He's giving money to other candidates. After he lost his presidential campaign, he started up a PAC called the One America Committee, which is raising money to distribute to like-minded candidates. This is a bit hot-dogs-and-laws here, but giving money to candidates makes them more likely to endorse you. Helps good candidates win, too.
  
• He's staying active in the online community. This is a big one, for reasons I'll discuss below, but the blog at oneamericacommittee.com still gets a ton of traffic and posts. When Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo decided to go group-blog with TPMCafe.com, his special guest blogger the first week was John Edwards (who made some great posts, too). He's even created an online book club. Internet activists will prove to be a big help in a future presidential run, so engaging in a dialogue with them now is a fantastic idea.
  
• He'll campaign for other candidates. He'll still be a name politician by the time serious campaigning starts for 2006, so having John Edwards show up for your fundraiser or rally will be a big boost for a lot of candidates. And with the time Edwards will have, hopefully he'll be able to keep up the frenetic travel pace he's been on so far this year. Again, that will help endear him to the candidates, Democratic activists, and to the voters who will see his name in papers all across the country.
  
• He's coming out with a creative new book. Called Blueprints: The Architecture of Our Lives, the book will be a photo essay on the childhood homes of people, famous and not so much, showing how their early homes shaped their lives. Neat topic, and it's scheduled to drop in fall 2006. Great stuff.
  
• UPDATE: I forgot to mention he's staying on top of the latest blogging techniques. Edwards is doing podcasts, which is an mp3 audio-blog (like broadcasting, see, but you're casting to iPods), and videoblogging, which I assume is self-explanatory since I've never done it. I hear from various sources that this is getting Edwards some real attention in the blogosphere; thanks to Jackie in the comments for the reminder.
  

So I'm really not concerned about Edwards' ability to stay in the news. As for strategies, it looks like he's planning to run as more of an outsider this time. He tried that to some extent in 2003 and 2004, but Howard Dean managed to win outsider status, leaving Edwards to try to maintain his own outsider persona while simultaneously defending his votes in Washington. Not an easy trick. But with the specifics of the Iraq vote and No Child Left Behind four more years behind us, Edwards will be able to position himself as a regular guy working on issues, again, like poverty, that don't get much attention in Washington. That's why talking with bloggers at this point is so important: they're all outsiders too, and they support people who respect them and care about what they say. If you doubt Edwards' seriousness in courting these folks, the American Prospect is reporting that Edwards actually brought a few prominent bloggers over to his house for a chat a few weeks ago. You may have noticed Taegan Goddard making a ton of Edwards posts on Political Wire; well, turns out Edwards had just invited him over to his house. Again, that's smart politics.

In the immediate 2004 election postmortem, Edwards said that Democrats cannot be afraid to talk about their agenda in terms of moral values. I agree fully, and it looks like Edwards is already on the ball with how to do it. From his appearance at the Take Back America conference in DC last week:

Don't tell me the Democrats don't stand for anything ... We believe we have a moral responsibility to help those around us who are struggling.

Good to see he's getting the hang of talking about morals without sounding like he's trying to run your life. Maybe it's not that hard after all.

Now, my final point about Edwards is not necessarily relevant to his political future, and I'm basing it only on my own suspicions: I think he's writing his own stuff again. Let's not forget, this guy was one of the best trial lawyers in the country; he has the skills to make an argument. To illustrate the point, there was a bit of a tiff between Edwards and Howard Dean over the weekend. Basically, Dean had said that most Republicans have never worked a day in their lives. Now, while it's pretty clear that Dean meant prominent Washington Republicans, it didn't necessarily come out that way, and Edwards remarked that he didn't necessarily endorse everything Howard Dean says.

So, bloodsport, right? Hardly. Take a look at what Edwards wrote on his blog:

What a flap has arisen over a disagreement about the way something is said! I was in Nashville over the weekend, thanking the good people of Tennessee who supported the Democratic presidential ticket this year, when I was asked whether I thought that it was fair to say that people who were Republican hadn’t done a good day’s work. Of course, I didn’t think so, and I said that. I don’t think our DNC chair, Howard Dean, would put it that way again if asked either. I disagreed with him, and I said so. And, I want to be clear, I would have to say so again if I were asked again. I said a lot of good things about Howard’s outreach program and invigoration of the internet as a communication and fundraising tool, but no one wrote about that. Instead the headlines blared that I disagreed with Howard. And then the flap arose: A chasm! A split! A revolt!

Instead, how about: Nonsense!
We are both talking about the Republicans and their failure to address the needs of working people. We both agree with this basic truth: This Republican president and this Republican majority are not doing what they should be doing for working people in this country. That’s a core belief we need to fight for... And we have.

Howard and I have been saying the same thing about this for years. Hear that? The same thing. For years. Have I ever put it some way that Howard wouldn't agree with? Probably. And he put it in a way, once, just the other day, that I can’t agree with, since I come from a place where hard-working people, who are better served by the agenda and passion of the Democrats, somehow still vote Republican. But Howard and I are committed to a 50-state strategy that will reach out to those voters, in North Carolina, and in Kansas, and in Tennessee, across this country and tell the truth about what is happening in this country to their jobs, to their health care, to their forests and streams, to their vision of what this country is and should be.

He goes on, and it's all great, but you can tell by reading that excerpt that this is one hell of a smart move by John Edwards. He refocuses the debate from his slightest of disagreements with Howard Dean and uses it as an opportunity to talk about all the important stuff on which they're completely together. That's great politics, for Edwards, for Dean, for the party, and what the hell, for the future of our country. Like most of Edwards' politics, it's the smartest move I can think of, but he makes it look so simple you wonder why no one else has done it so effectively.

And in any case, I'm not familiar with seeing that writing style from him. It may just be yet another sign that the full John Edwards is about to be released.