Election 2005: Bold predictions
Sure, I could forsake looking like an idiot, but then where's the payoff once it turns out I'm right?
Anyway, here's my prediction from last year:
Percentage-wise I'll go Kerry by five, 52-47. I predict states that will switch will be New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida and the upset special Arkansas. Bush will not pick up any new ones, giving Kerry a handy 317-221 victory. For Senate races, I predict Democrats will lose seats in Georgia and Louisiana and pick up seats in Illinois, Oklahoma, Alaska and Colorado, bringing the Senate situation to 50-49-1.
So, look, I've got a really fantastic track record. (You will note, though, that we did indeed lose seats in Georgia and Louisiana.) So indulge me here as I once again prove the triumph of hope over experience:
New Jersey Governor: Jon Corzine comes through in the clutch, proving once again that Edwards Research alums, besides being honest and conscientious, also get shit done. Thanks to research director Brian Horan and, I guess, the candidate himself, Corzine wins by five.
Virginia Governor: Tim Kaine in a close one, percentage-wise 49-49, thanks to "progressive" Russ Potts), and the GOP doesn't give up for months.
New York Mayor: I say Bloomberg takes this one by a 25-percent margin, despite the heroic efforts of Ferrer campaign manager, NYU Law graduate and close personal friend Nick Baldick, and his dashing yet glamorous assistant Kinsey Casey.
California/Ohio redistricting initiative: These are both going to fail, but I include them because I have no idea why anyone would oppose them. Basically they make a nonpartisan commission do all the redistricting for state legislative and congressional seats, so incumbents can't make agreements to just gerrymander themselves into reelection. Besides the fact that this could help Democrats a lot in both states, it's just the right thing to do. But it looks like they'll fail.
St. Paul Mayor: Smooth move, buddy.
And finally, my good friend Steve Marchand becomes the next Mayor of Portsmouth, NH. Good luck Steve!