Terry McMahon's Awesome Blog

Noted espn.com columnist Bill Simmons, author of the Red Sox book I got for Christmas, has been solidifying his status as one of the major voices of his generation (and you think I'm kidding) by doing a series of interviews with seriously fascinating people, like NBA Commissioner David Stern, Red Sox superhero Curt Schilling, and the guy who made "The OC." Most recently, he talked with New Yorker writer Malcolm Gladwell, better known as the author of "Blink" and "The Tipping Point." In Part 2 of the wide-ranging, fascinating interview, Gladwell talks about his potential as an NBA general manager:

Gladwell: Here's the real question. If I was GM of the Knicks, would I be doing a better job of managing the team than Thomas? I believe, somewhat immodestly, that the answer is yes. And I say this even though it is abundantly clear that Thomas knows several thousand times more about basketball than I do. I've never picked up a basketball. I couldn't diagram a play to save my life. I would put my level of basketball knowledge, among hard core fans, in the 25th percentile.

So why do I think I would be better? There's a famous experiment done by a wonderful psychologist at Columbia University named Dan Goldstein. He goes to a class of American college students and asks them which city they think is bigger -- San Antonio or San Diego. The students are divided. Then he goes to an equivalent class of German college students and asks the same question. This time the class votes overwhelmingly for San Diego. The right answer? San Diego. So the Germans are smarter, at least on this question, than the American kids. But that's not because they know more about American geography. It's because they know less. They've never heard of San Antonio. But they've heard of San Diego and using only that rule of thumb, they figure San Diego must be bigger. The American students know way more. They know all about San Antonio. They know it's in Texas and that Texas is booming. They know it has a pro basketball team, so it must be a pretty big market. Some of them may have been in San Antonio and taken forever to drive from one side of town to another -- and that, and a thousand other stray facts about Texas and San Antonio, have the effect of muddling their judgment and preventing them from getting the right answer.

I'd be the equivalent of the German student. I know nothing about basketball, so I'd make only the safest, most obvious decisions. I'd read John Hollinger and Chad Ford and I'd print out your mid-season NBA roundup and post it on my blackboard. I'd look at the box scores every morning, and watch Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith on TNT. Would I have made the disastrous Marbury trade? Of course not. I'd wonder why Jerry Colangelo -- who I know is a lot smarter than I am -- was so willing to part with him.

I don't even have any insight. But how is that not fascinating? One other Simmons thing I want to point out: look at this quote from a more recent column:

Eventually, they push to play somewhere else, and only because they want to be paid like a franchise player without the responsibility of carrying a franchise. That's why McGrady left Orlando. That's why Carter left Toronto. That's why Davis left New Orleans. That's why KG will push to leave Minnesota this summer.

I love that last part about Kevin Garnett. When I was in politics, I really enjoyed developing my skills in predicting the future. Most people are too paralyzed to do so, since even within the realm of foreseeability, there are always a fair number of different outcomes. So why pick one, right? But it's a skill like anything else, and if you give it a try, you'd be surprised how often it works. Bill Simmons is the only writer I know who's willing to take this approach and say, "you know what, I'm pretty sure this is going to happen." Will it happen with KG? As always, I don't know anything about basketball. But it's neat to try.

P.S. You can try this at home without having to know the intricacies of the NBA or the TX-22 congressional race. When you get a call on your cell phone, stop and think about who it might be before you look. You'd be surprised how much of what happens can be predicted if you think it through.