I see four factors affecting the midterm House and Senate races this year:
- The national climate. Right now it's still terrible for Republicans, but the lack of really bad news lately has helped people forget that the Republicans in Washington have screwed up everything they've gotten their hands on. A few months ago I thought the national climate would remain bad for Republicans, but two developments have tempered that impression: first, some of the corruption news seems to be calming down (namely Rove not being indicted), and in a special election in California's 50th district, the Republican congressman who went to jail because of his too-cozy relationship with lobbyists was replaced with ... a Republican lobbyist. So although the Republican corruption scandals are like an octopus (there are a lot more tentacles than just Karl Rove, or even Jack Abramoff), it's becoming apparent that corruption, by itself, will not deliver Congress to the Democrats.
- The Democratic alternative. Fortunately, it gets interesting. I think everyone understands that a positive, affirmative Democratic message on how to improve this country is absolutely necessary for major gains in November. The conventional wisdom, however, holds that either Democrats won't ever come up with real plans, or they'll all be a muddled mess. Like most conventional wisdom in national politics, though, that won't happen. Just in the past couple of weeks, more and more Democrats have been agitating for debate, viewing intraparty dissent not as a sign of disarray, but as a sign of healthy discussion of the issues. As Paul Begala puts it:
The only place in the American government where there is an honest and spirited debate over Iraq is within the Democratic Party.
The more we hash this stuff out, the better the end results are going to be. My suspicion, on the Iraq war and most pressing issues, is that Democrats will debate these issues enough to have viable affirmative options in November. In other words, there are too many people who are too aware of the problem for Democrats to spend October doing nothing but talking about how the GOP has screwed this country up. It's not like we won't have help: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Rep. Rahm Emanuel (who I believe is the only Israeli Army veteran in Congress) is writing a book with Democratic Leadership Council co-founder Bruce Reed on The Plan: Big Ideas for America. Whether these "big ideas" are terrific or not is hopefully irrelevant, as with any luck the head of the DCCC writing a book on Democratic ideas and issues will promote enough discussion in the media and online that Democrats will have no choice but to come up with solid, posiitive, affirmative ideas for how to improve the country. On this count, I'm very optimistic.
- Immigration. The Republican justification for focusing on immigration this year is that they're playing defense in the midterms, so their only tactic is to fire up the Republican base as much as possible. (Ever notice that every political situation seems to require the Republicans to pander to their base?) I think this is a long-term mistake. Proposition 187 passed in California in 1996, denying illegal immigrants all but emergency services, but the long-term effect was turning California Hispanics towards the Democratic Party. Everyone forgets this, but California was a swing state right into the 1990s. Now it's not even close.
Will the strong-arm approach on immigration have the same effect nationally? Will it turn out enough conservatives to stem GOP losses in November? I have no idea, but Hispanics voted for President Bush much more in 2004 than they had in the past. If Republican-leaning Hispanics vote Democrat en masse, that could flip Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and maybe Florida. Republicans would have a very hard time winning presidential elections with that map.
- The caliber of candidates. Democrats have a very small number of A-list candidate recruits, but a high number of B-level candidates. The upshot of this, basically, is that I suspect either 6 of them or 40 of them will win, with not much room in between. With luck, these candidates will get better as the year goes on, especially if, as I said above, the Democrats come up with some solid ideas for these people to run on. I think this will be either a remarkable year or a not very exciting one.
Incidentally, if I''m running for Congress, I start talking about how September 11th was bad (and how the administration had no idea what to do), how Hurricane Katrina was bad (and how the administration had no idea what to do), and the thought that more disasters are possible, and we need plans for them. Does anyone seriously think the Republicans have a plan for a massive earthquake in California? Another terrorist attack anywhere? Is global warming going to make tornados in Nebraska and Kansas better or worse? In my mind, that's why we need Democrats in Congress: to make sure someone's minding the store, and to keep the seat warm in the Oval Office until we take it back. Competence can be a winning issue for the Democrats, but only if we tie it into actual events that could actually happen.
Finally: I have a feeling that this is going to be our first woman president.