Terry McMahon's Awesome Blog

From the Portsmouth Herald:

Going from a constituency of 15,000 to 1.2 million would be quite a challenge, but political leaders in the state believe Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand may have the stuff to challenge U.S. Sen. John Sununu in 2008.

And, for the record, I hope he does. People in the article call Steve "very smart, very personable" and "a very hard worker," all of which is true. He's also a fundamentally good guy and exactly the kind of person we need in the Senate. The article calls him "wildly popular" as mayor, and he's already shown a terrific ability to win over the ideologically disparate elements of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. I always thought former Governor Jeanne Shaheen would run against Sununu, but Steve Marchand may be an even better candidate.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 5:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm thrilled with how the elections turned out, especially the amazing fact that Democrats didn't lose a single seat in either the House or the Senate, and they kept their hold on all their governorships. And it took me a few days to realize this, but Democrats also took back the Senate by beating six Republican incumbents without losing a single seat. That is ridiculous: open seats are easier to take over by leaps and bounds, and the fact that Democrats somehow beat six ideologically diverse incumbents (Chafee, Santorum, DeWine, Allen, Burns and Talent) makes regaining the Senate all the more impressive.

I'm also impressed by how many of the House winners came out of nowhere. Most of the Democratic pickups were in districts considered uncompetitive at the beginning of the cycle, and very few of the candidates heralded as major stars actually wound up winning. It's tempting to chalk it up to a number of factors - the netroots doing a better job of finding and promoting candidates than the DC establishment, the early effort to recruit Democratic war veterans largely washing out - but I have a feeling that it's simply a matter of which Republican incumbents were better prepared for strong challengers. I can think of very few examples (Clay Shaw in Florida and maybe Rob Simmons in Connecticut) where Republican incumbents knew all along they would face a tough opponent and lost anyway. A good example that distinguishes netroots support from late-breaking races is Kansas' 2nd district, where Democrat Nancy Boyda made a really stunning upset of incumbent Republican Jim Ryun. This race was never on the netroots' radar screens, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee made a big investment in the district a week or so before the election, catching by surprise the DC Republicans who didn't expect to have to compete there. So even though the DCCC was much more interested in the district than Democratic bloggers, that didn't mean the Democratic candidate lost: it was the element of surprise that won it. I'm not sure if how far we can extrapolate from these results, but this is a concern of mine for 2008 House races.

Still, 2006 retired the increasingly troubling feeling (deja vu for us Red Sox fans) that maybe the Democrats could just never have a successful Election Day again. I'm also excited that another one of my major concerns about democracy looks like it's beginning the path to a solution. For the first time in a while, Republicans as well as Democrats have been upset at how many voters are incorrectly refused the opportunity to vote. Democrats are more concerned about what appears to be a stolen election for, appropriately, the seat Katherine Harris is giving up in Florida, but a fair number of actual Republican officeholders were prevented from voting due to registry mistakes or not bringing proper ID. Provisional ballots, where they let you vote anyway and then check later whether they can count it, are a good start. Two good posts on DailyKos, though, illustrate how we should just drop polling places entirely and move to vote-by-mail. Apparently these systems work marvelously: there's much higher turnout, people have time to study the candidates, there's an automatic paper trail, and if you happen to work late on election day you don't have to skip voting. You can read the arguments here and here. I'm feeling good that we can turn these proposals into reality fairly soon.

But despite all the progress, I'm still only cautiously optimistic about Democratic expansion into previously Republican-dominated areas. I love this "the Republican Party is now a regional party confined to the Deep South" idea, but it's a little early to start gloating. I understand that Democrats are now the dominant party in the Northeast, things went well in the Midwest, and we're making serious inroads in the Plains states and the Rocky Mountain states, but Bush carried most of the states from Oklahoma to Montana with 60% of the vote in our last presidential election and the people of Kansas have still never elected a Democratic senator. I'm optimistic that this will be a progressive region someday, but let's celebrate once we pick up Senate seats in Wyoming and Texas and our presidential candidates start carrying Utah.

The other sad part of Election Day were that a lot of Democratic candidates came very close to winning. It's terrific that Democrats picked up three seats in New York, but two other New York candidates hit 49%, another candidate took 48%, and all three of them lost. There are plenty of other examples throughout the country, like Darcy Burner in Washington or Gary Trauner in Wyoming. I'm not sure what this means in a big-picture sense, but it does underscore the importance of tactics. After 2004, Democrats realized their relative inadequacy at get-out-the-vote programs, and hopefully by 2008 they will catch up.

I'm also optimistic about 2008 because the Senate outlook looks terrific. Look at these posts on DailyKos and TAPPED to see two competing but similarly optimistic outlooks, and neither of those mentions that U.S. Rep. Artur Davis is thinking of challenging Jeff Sessions, even if an African-American Democrat running for Senate in Alabama probably starts at a disadvantage.

Finally, the truth is that even though the balance of power has shifted, Washington is still a pretty fucked-up place. I have two great examples of the judgment calls Washington reporters bring to their jobs. Look at this quick comparison of Newsweek covers after the 1994 and 2006 elections to remind yourself how unwilling the mainstream media is to cheer for Democrats. And if you want to see a real profile in courage, read this article from a longtime CBS reporter in Washington who says that the Republican leadership who came to power in 1994 is "a bunch of weirdos." Seriously, he felt like now was the appropriate time to point this out. Thanks for the news, buddy. I also read this post by Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz alum Glenn Greenwald where he responds to the ridiculous and usually sexist Washington insider critiques of Nancy Pelosi thusly:

It's what these pundits and journalists do. They have pre-conceived, vapid notions about everything and everyone -- all driven by deep self-love for their own superior wisdom -- and they dixstort reality and crowd out sober analysis of everything that matters.

I'll give two examples of annoying behavior that doesn't help anybody. First, I remember one time I was at a Democratic job fair and I was breathlessly introduced to some guy who was political director at the DSCC (or something), in the way that's supposed to make you think you're talking to someone special. Our well-established protagonist was catching up with friends, one of whom asked him why he hadn't helped a certain younger contact find a job in DC. "Oh, I didn't know he was your friend!" said the godfather with a grin. "I just saw the name and thought I didn't recognize it, and then why would I call them back?" Chortle chortle. I love this attitude: if you don't know someone, there's no reason to talk to them. You know you've made it when you have so many friends that you can function without reaching out to new people. That's awesome, and it establishes this guy as the alpha male, regardless of what everyone said in high school. Except for two things: one, Democratic politics is devoid of accountability, and half of why this guy was in the position he was in was because he didn't go to law school or find a job back wherever he was from. Two, that is a ridiculous attitude for a prominent figure in a political party: the point of a party is to bring in more people, especially the dedicated young activists who are trying to get involved. That's a pretty cheap elitism to sacrifice the next generation over.

Similarly, I was at the same early 2003 job fair, and I was standing with my friend Brian at the bottom of a staircase with a crowd of people lined up behind us. (It was a popular event, and they were only letting in so many people at a time.) Some Democratic staffer comes strolling out and announces to the crowd that the best experience you can get is to work on a campaign that year, during the off-year, specifically citing the New Jersey and Virginia legislative races. (For reference, and I don't know why the guy didn't mention this, while NJ and VA only had races that year for the state legislature, Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi all had competitive governor's races.) My friend Brian says, "what about the San Francisco mayor's race?" (This is the one that ended up with Gavin Newsom barely beating out a Green Party candidate and then legalizing gay marriage.) The Democratic staffer guy, who mind you had only come out to let us know how much more experienced he has, paused for a second, mentioned the name of some other kool kid he knew, tried finding them for 30 seconds, looked kind of lost, and then when Brian said "should I talk to the California Democratic Party?" confidently proclaimed, "yeah, talk to the California Democratic Party" and promptly walked away. Brian turns to me: "Or, 'hey, I can't find the person who's working on that race, so give me one of the 50 resumes you brought and I'll find a way to get it to someone on that campaign.'" Ever since then I've been especially attuned to connecting people when I can. It's just common sense. Oh, that was the next thing Brian said: "Would the Republicans have blown me off like that?"

These stories are neither conclusory, relevant, or well-written, but I hope they underscore the atmosphere of getting a Democratic job in DC so much as it resembles the long-delayed consolation prize for not being very cool in high school, and a poorly operated one at that. Election Day was a good start for fixing Washington, but we have a very long way to go.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Alaska-GOV:
Prediction: Tony Knowles (D) 51 - Sarah Palin (R) 48
Reality: Palin 49 - Knowles 41

CO-04:
Prediction: Angie Paccione (D) 50 - Marilyn Musgrave (R-inc.) 48
Reality: Musgrave 46 - Paccione 43
This is a tough loss since Musgrave is so awful and thinks that gay marriage is the biggest danger facing America. Hopefully Paccione will win this one in 2008, when Colorado becomes a swing state too.

CO-05:
Prediction: Jay Fawcett (D) 48 - Doug Lamborn (R) 47
Reality: Lamborn 59 - Fawcett 41
My first state with two misses! This prediction was not close. I admit I look ridiculous here in retrospect, but for some reason I thought the Ted Haggard scandal would depress turnout more than it did. That's my mistake.

CT-02
Prediction: Rob Simmons (R-inc.) 51 - Joe Courtney (D) 49
Reality: Courtney 50 - Simmons 50
This one was very close, with Courtney winning by about 100 votes. The only Haverford alum in Congress took a long time to give up, but ultimately he's no longer joining Chris Shays as the only House Republicans left from New England. I still think my guess was pretty good.

CT-04
Prediction: Diane Farrell (D) 51 - Christopher Shays (R-inc.) 49
Reality: Shays 51 - Farrell 48
Things didn't go as well for Connecticut Democrats as I had hoped, what with Shays retaining yet again and that mess of a Senate race. This is congressional run #2 for Farrell, so despite hitting at least 48% both times, it looks like we'll need someone new against Shays next time. When is that guy going to get sick of the acrimony in Congress and retire?

FL-13
Prediction: Christine Jennings (D) 52 - Vern Buchanan (R) 47
Reality: Buchanan 50 - Jennings 50
This election was stolen and needs to be re-run, for separate reasons. On the stolen part, the National Republican Campaign Committee called voters repeatedly, at early-morning hours, calling back more often if people hung up quickly. They suggested in the calls that they were coming from the Democratic candidate, so everyone would get mad at the Democrat. They did that here to Christine Jennings, and the current total has her down 400 votes out of over 237,000 cast, so I don't feel badly about mis-calling this race. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that there needs to be criminal penalties for shit like this, because civil damages (i.e. payouts from lawsuits) aren't doing the trick. As for the re-run, amid reports that the electronic voting machines were screwed up and didn't have this race listed, something like 18,000 people just didn't vote for anyone in the congressional race. I don't know if that's a high number for how many people voted, but going off the rest of their ballots, those 18,000 voters skewed heavily Democratic. Again, this race was "decided" by 400 votes. It's not unprecedented for campaigns with indecipherable wins to be re-run, and this time I think we would get a representative who represents the will of the district.

Idaho-GOV:
Prediction: Jerry Brady (D) 49 - Butch Otter (R) 47
Reality: Otter 52 - Brady 44
This might not have been my best pick.

Illinois-06:
Prediction: Tammy Duckworth (D) 49 - Peter Roskam (R) 47
Reality: Roskam 51 - Duckworth 49
Thanks to DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel for putting $3 million into this race when there were clearly better options. I am starting to suspect that if the DCCC treated this as a normal race instead of its marquee race we would have won: Duckworth has an appealing personal history but that just isn't enough to win a campaign. Narrow primary loser Christine Cegelis had a much more energetic campaign.

Iowa-02:
Prediction: Jim Leach (R-inc.) 55 - David Loebsack (D) 43
Reality: Loebsack 51 - Leach 49
Aw! I did NOT see that coming! I call this the second-biggest upset of the night.

Maryland-GOV:
Prediction: Robert Ehrlich (R-inc.) 51 - Martin O'Malley (D) 49
Reality: O'Malley 53 - Ehrlich 46
O'Malley held a big lead for most of this campaign, but by Election Day it looked like it had narrowed into a tie. Momentum matters in politics and the World Series, so I don't feel too moronic for missing this call, even if it's one of my worst predictions overall. I'm not complaining!

Minnesota-GOV:
Prediction: Mike Hatch (D) 52 - Tim Pawlenty (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Pawlenty 47 - Hatch 46
Now, if I had said something like "There's no way Tim Pawlenty's support goes above 47," then I look like a smart guy. Here, not so much. I thought Pawlenty would be swept up in the anti-Republican mood both nationally and within Minnesota, but apparently it didn't work out that way. On paper these both look like strong candidates, but I guess I'm not as sharp on Minnesota politics as I could be.

MN-01:
Prediction: Gil Gutknecht (R-inc.) 51 - Tim Walz (D) 48
Reality: Walz 53 - Gutknecht 47
Apparently Gil Gutknecht is a really good guy, and now he'll be a really good guy in the private sector. Seriously, I've never understood why people want to keep elected officials who differ from them drastically on the issues that matter. It's not my responsibility to make sure that members of Congress have gainful employment; if I don't like their politics, I think they should leave. Anyway, Gutknecht's loss is mitigated by Tim Walz being one of my favorite candidates and now one of my favorite congressmen. From his Wikipedia entry:

Walz was inspired to run for office in part by an occurrence at a 2004 rally for George W. Bush in Mankato "where he and two students were removed due to a John Kerry sticker on one of the students' wallets". Walz had no opponent in the race for the DFL nomination for the seat in the September 12, 2006 primary election. He beat incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht in the general election on November 7, and will take office in January 2007. In his victory speech, Walz said, "maybe they should have let us in" to that event.

NE-03:
Prediction: Scott Kleeb (D) 51 - Adrian Smith (R) 47
Reality: Smith 55 - Kleeb 45
This is another one where I was really far off. I had heard the internals for both parties looked really good for Kleeb going into the final weekend, but apparently this is one of the few districts in the country where a late visit from President Bush will actually help your campaign. This is a tough one to take since Scott Kleeb is so awesome and Adrian Smith is such a bad fit for the district. I've heard rumors of pushing Kleeb into the Senate race if Chuck Hagel retires in 2008, but that may be too ambitious.

Nevada-GOV:
Prediction: Dina Titus (D) 54 - Jim Gibbons (R) 45
Reality: Gibbons 48 - Titus 44
I underestimated Nevada voters' ability to look past assaulting a cocktail waitress when they choose a governor. That was my mistake.

NH-01:
Prediction: Jeb Bradley (R-inc.) 54 - Carol Shea-Porter (D) 45
Reality: Shea-Porter 52 - Bradley 48
This is the biggest political upset I have ever seen. Shea-Porter was an absolute underdog in the primary, but you can explain away her win because her primary was the only strongly contested race that day, and her supporters were the only ones eager to go to the polls. That sometimes happens. The general election, though, is an entirely different story: plenty of candidates think they can win an election by not raising money, hardly running any TV ads, and somehow energizing the community enough that everyone will just turn out and vote for them. That plan is usually ridiculous, but Carol Shea-Porter just pulled it off. There is a DailyKos post by the tech guy on her campaign which is truly amazing, as he goes through what it was like to be on this campaign in both the primary and general elections. That link has my highest recommendations. (One example for my campaign-veteran friends: they couldn't afford the state party voter file, so they went to every town hall's voter registration lists and made their own. That's ballsy, brilliant and the sign of a really dedicated team.) I thought my prediction here was being generous.

New Mexico-01:
Prediction: Patricia Madrid (D) 53 - Heather Wilson (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Wilson 50 - Madrid 50
This race was very recently called. What happened here was that in their last debate, Wilson's question for Madrid was something like, "how are you going to protect New Mexico voters from a tax increase?" The answer (which, to be fair, I had to think about) is to ignore the question and say that after Heather Wilson, her friend George Bush, and the Republican Congress racked up such a record deficit, there no longer are any easy answers, and maybe Heather Wilson should have thought about basic budget balancing before she voted for the war in Iraq, costing taxpayers millions a day. Madrid kind of froze, started an answer, and froze again. That moment turned into pretty much the only ad the Wilson campaign ran from there on out. Wilson was really living the dream there: every candidate and staffer always hopes that their question in the candidates-ask-each-other section of the debate will somehow magically knock the other candidate out of the race. This is the only time I've ever seen it happen.

New York-29:
Prediction: Eric Massa (D) 50 - Randy Kuhl (R-inc.) 49
Reality: Kuhl 52 - Massa 48
It's fantastic that Democrats picked up three House seats in New York, but it's depressing how close they came in so many other races: Democratic candidates lost three House races in New York while still taking at least 48% of the vote. Hopefully that bodes well for next time but there's always the possibility 2006 was the best shot in a while.

North Carolina-08:
Prediction: Larry Kissell (D) 54 - Robin Hayes (R) 45
Reality: Hayes 50 - Kissell 50
This one is still up in the air until all the provisional ballots are counted (and may actually switch) but I'm counting it as a loss. It's a shame, too, since Kissell is so awesome. I'm not sure if he'll be an even better candidate next time or if Hayes was more vulnerable caught off-guard.

Ohio-01:
Prediction: John Cranley (D) 50 - Steve Chabot (R-inc.) 48
Reality: Chabot 53 - Cranley 47
Despite lots of success in the races for governor and senator, I was expecting Democrats to pick up more seats in House races in Ohio than they did. I'm not really sure what happened; the environment was toxic both nationally and statewide. I can guess that most of the GOP incumbents like Chabot hadn't been softened up in a while, but there were plenty of incumbents nationally who lost their first serious challenge in years.

OH-02:
Prediction: Victoria Wulsin (D) 51 - Jean Schmidt (R-inc.) 48
Reality: Schmidt 51 - Wulsin 49
It's still amazing that Democrats have kept this district competitive, but it may be that Schmidt's repeated inanity has contributed too. I guess we'll see in 2008: find out the district's presidential vote and compare it to the national popular vote, then compare that difference to what it was in 2004. I hope and suspect that this district is beginning to become more Democratic.

OH-15:
Prediction: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 53 - Deborah Pryce (R) 45
Reality: Pryce 51 - Kilroy 49
I really thought Pryce, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House, would be swept up in the anti-Republican environment, but apparently she did a great job campaigning. I still think we can take her out next time.

Pennsylvania-04:
Prediction: Melissa Hart (R-inc.) 51 - Jason Altmire (D) 49
Reality: Altmire 52 - Hart 48
Melissa Hart will retire from Congress without me knowing much about her, but I do know a bit more about Jason Altmire. He worked for the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, he was a legislative aide on health care in the 1990s, and he played for Florida State when they won the Sugar Bowl. When I originally saw that Democrats had a serious House candidate named Jason, I assumed he was in his late 30s, and sure enough, he is. I went to the Social Security Administration's awesome Baby Names Database and discovered that Jason, besides being the #2 name for boys for five years in a row in the 70s, went from out of the top 100 to a top-10 name in the span of five years from 1966-1971. Does anyone know how this happened? Was the lead singer of Strawberry Alarm Clock named Jason?

PA-06:
Prediction: Lois Murphy (D) 51 - Jim Gerlach (R-inc.) 49
Reality: Gerlach 51 - Murphy 49
I think this is the exact same margin from 2004, and it would be odd if it were again so close. I'm not sure how many times Murphy can run, but it seems like one of these times she should be able to pull it off. That said, I think Myrth York shouldn't have run a third time for governor of Rhode Island after winning the nomination and failing twice, so hopefully PA-06 has someone else who can come through for Team Democrat.

PA-08:
Prediction: Mike Fitzpatrick (R-inc.) 51 - Patrick Murphy (D) 48
Reality: Murphy 50 - Fitzpatrick 50
Man, I did not do well on the Pennsylvania House races.

Virginia-02:
Prediction: Phil Kellam (D) 50 - Thelma Drake (R) 49
Reality: Drake 51 - Kellam 49
I just don't get the feeling that Thelma Drake is that strong a candidate. I think if Kellam learns from his mistakes this time around, he could beat her in 2008.

Wisconsin-08:
Prediction: John Gard (R) 54 - Steve Kagen (D) 45
Reality: Kagen 51 - Gard 49
This one was a pretty random guess, and I missed. Kagen's a doctor, though, which reminds me of a funny anecdote Howard Dean told. Apparently when he first became governor of Vermont there weren't many doctors in public office, so he used to go to medical conventions and tell doctors to run for office. Then he discovered that all the doctors who ran were right-wing Republicans (I'm sure he was thinking of Bill Frist here) so he decided to stop. Steve Kagen: reversing the trend!

Wyoming-AL:
Prediction: Gary Trauner (D) 49 - Barbara Cubin (R) 47
Reality: Cubin 48 - Trauner 48
This one hurt, mostly because Cubin is so terrible. I hope she loses next time.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 10:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Alabama-GOV:
Prediction: Bob Riley (R-inc.) 55 - Lucy Baxley (D) 42
Reality: Riley 58 - Baxley 42

Arizona-SEN:
Prediction: Jon Kyl (R-inc.) 51 - Jim Pederson (D) 46
Reality: Kyl 53 - Pederson 44
I keep waiting on Arizona to become a Democratic state. It's notoriously conservative, being the home of both Barry Goldwater and John McCain. Clinton carried it in 1996, but that seems to have been the major federal success of Arizona Democrats. Hopefully next time.

AZ-01
Prediction: Rick Renzi (R-inc.) 53 - Ellen Simon (D) 45
Reality: Renzi 51 - Simon 44

AZ-05
Prediction: Harry Mitchell (D) 49 - J.D. Hayworth (R-inc.) 48
Reality: Mitchell 51 - Hayworth 46
This may be a race in which I predicted a Democratic takeover simply because I don't really like the Republican incumbent, and I got it right simply on dumb luck. On the other hand, this wasn't an unbelievably close outcome, and the outcome may have had something to do with Mitchell's longstanding popularity. Now, I have a pretty high standard for the argument that voters have a long history with a guy and will vote for him as a result. In Louisville in 2004 we argued that the district had been voting Tony Miller as Circuit Court Clerk for 18 years, so they'd feel comfortable voting for him for Congress, and reality didn't really bear that out. Harry Mitchell, on the other hand, was mayor of Tempe for about 20 years, and there's even a statute of him in the town square. Protip: if there's a statue of you in the town square, you might be a viable candidate for Congress.

AZ-08:
Prediction: Gabrielle Giffords (D) 56 - Randy Graf (R) 43
Reality: Giffords 54 - Graf 42
Giffords spent one term in the Arizona House before running for Arizona Senate, and one term in the state Senate before running for Congress. That rocks. Also, Giffords was a Fulbright scholar and went to the Kennedy School of Government, and she returned to Arizona in 1996 to take over the family business when her father took ill. That rocks. I like Gabrielle Giffords.

Arkansas-GOV:
Prediction: Mike Beebe (D) 56 - Asa Hutchinson (R) 42
Reality: Beebe 55 - Hutchinson 41
Oddly enough, Democrats have super-majorities in both houses of the state legislature (and four of the five members of Congress, both U.S. Senators, and now the governor) but the last time Arkansas voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, excepting President Clinton, was in 1976.

California-GOV:
Prediction: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-inc.) 55 - Phil Angelides (D) 42
Reality: Schwarzenegger 56 - Angelides 39
I looked up the last time the Democratic candidate for governor of California didn't break 40%, and it turns out it was 1986. It almost happened in 1994. That said, California didn't skew heavily Democratic until the late 90s, and I am sure this is the first time the Democratic candidate for governor finished about 20 points behind the statewide performance of the last Democratic presidential candidate here.

CA-04:
Prediction: John Doolittle (R-inc.) 54 - Charles Brown (D) 45
Reality: Doolittle 49 - Brown 46
Even though Brown lost, I'm still impressed. Do you think the Brown campaign ran with or away from any other associations that may exist with the name "Charlie Brown"?

CA-11:
Prediction: Jerry McNerney (D) 51 - Richard Pombo (R-inc.) 48
Reality: McNerney 53 - Pombo 47
This was a great contrast: the wind turbine engineer beating the anti-environmentalist chair of the House Resources Committee. For the record, McNerney ran a simply outstanding campaign. I was looking at his press photo page, and they were sharp enough not only to include mega-high-resolution photos but great shots that effectively summed up the campaign. There's one with McNerney standing by a bunch of wind turbines, one of McNerney standing by President Clinton at a huge McNerney rally, and one of McNerney with former Republican congressman Pete McCloskey, with one of those backgrounds alternating between "Republicans for McNerney" and "McCloskey for McNerney." He also did a terrific job of energizing local activists. He deserved to win, and I hope he's in Congress for a long time.

CA-45:
Prediction: Mary Bono (R-inc.) 59 - David Roth (D) 39
Reality: Bono 59 - Roth 41
We may have gotten rid of the only Haverford alum in Congress, but at least there's still a Scientologist.

CA-50:
Prediction: Brian Bilbray (R-inc.) 51 - Francine Busby (D) 45
Reality: Bilbray 54 - Busby 43

Colorado-GOV:
Prediction: Bill Ritter (D) 56 - Bob Beauprez (R) 41
Reality: Ritter 56 - Beauprez 41
My first and only correct pick. For next time, I'm torn between finding out whether there are third-party candidates in each race next time (which would affect whether my predicted percentages add up to 100), not spending that much time doing further research when I spent enough time making the prediction guide in the first place, and, of course, not doing this at all. Still, if I had the total percentages right, I would have nailed a lot more than just this one!

CO-06:
Prediction: Tom Tancredo (R-inc.) 53 - Bill Winter (D) 46
Reality: Tancredo 59 - Winter 40
Man, I paid for that perfect pick in the governor's race with some mediocre predictions in the Colorado House races. You can see even worse performances in the misses. Anyway, I guess xenophobia is still popular in these parts.

CO-07:
Prediction: Ed Perlmutter (D) 54 - Rick O'Donnell (R) 45
Reality: Perlmutter 55 - O'Donnell 42
I believe Democrats now have four of the seven Colorado congressional seats, and the remaining three will be contested in 2008. I am very excited to have new swing states.

Connecticut-SEN
Prediction: Joe Lieberman (CfL-inc.) 47 - Ned Lamont (D) 42 - Alan Schlesinger (R) 11
Reality: Lieberman 50 - Lamont 40 - Schlesinger 10
Actually, my disappointment over this loss is mitigated somewhat by everyone's percentage being divisible by ten. Look at that! Also, we gave Republicans a thumpin' everywhere else. My favorite political writer, Matt Taibbi, said, "I can't see any way to describe any day in which Joe Lieberman wins an election as a good day." I disagree, but this is still pretty depressing. One of the top staffers for the Lamont campaign, David Sirota, wrote a post-mortem on the campaign. I found this section edifying:

Immediately after the primary, we could have, for instance, done a better job of embarrassing Lieberman for having the nerve to ignore a taxpayer-funded democratic election and exploit a legal loophole for his own personal gain. The campaign made a strategic error in trusting the Chuck Schumers of the world when they told us not to hammer Lieberman, because they were working to politely ease him out of the race. Those efforts never happened because, as we saw, Senate Democrats really had no interest in getting him out.

CT-05
Prediction: Chris Murphy (D) 53 - Nancy Johnson (R-inc.) 45
Reality: Murphy 56 - Johnson 44
I thought my prediction was generous to Murphy, actually; that's a big margin for a 33-year-old challenging a 24-year incumbent. Johnson ran pretty good ads, too, so I'm not sure how he did it. Nonetheless it's good to see Connecticut will finally have a Democratic majority in its House delegation. Actually, I'm pretty sure Chris Shays is chairman of the House New England Republican Caucus, given that House members from New England skew 21-1 Democrat. Awesome!

Delaware-AL
Prediction: Mike Castle (R-inc.) 55 - Dennis Spivack (D) 44
Reality: Castle 57 - Spivack 39
Well, this turned out to be nothing. Still, I bet Democrats target it for 2008: Delaware isn't even a swing state.

Florida-GOV
Prediction: Charlie Crist (R) 52 - Jim Davis (D) 47
Reality: Crist 52 - Davis 45

FL-SEN
Prediction: Bill Nelson (D-inc.) 61 - Katherine Harris (R) 37
Reality: Nelson 60 - Harris 38
What else can we get Katherine Harris to run for?

FL-09
Prediction: Gus Bilirakis (R) 54 - Phyllis Busansky (D) 45
Reality: Bilirakis 56 - Busansky 44

FL-16
Prediction: Tim Mahoney (D) 52 - Joe Negron (R) 46
Reality: Mahoney 49 - Negron 48
This kind of freaks me out for how the district will go in 2008, but honestly I doubt many voters thought they were voting for Mark Foley. Still, here's hoping Mahoney puts all his congressional office funding into constituent service.

FL-22
Prediction: Ron Klein (D) 50 - Clay Shaw (R-inc.) 49
Reality: Klein 51 - Shaw 47
I switched this pick at the last second too! I love how I view all my correct picks as strokes of genius, and with all my incorrect picks, well, these things just happen.

Georgia-GOV
Prediction: Sonny Perdue (R) 55 - Mark Taylor (D) 43
Reality: Perdue 58 - Taylor 38
Ugh. Remember Perdue was considered completely unqualified when he beat Roy Barnes in 2002. Hey, would Roy Barnes run for Senate?

GA-08
Prediction: Jim Marshall (D-inc.) 51 - Mac Collins (R) 48
Reality: Marshall 51 - Collins 49
This was only close because Georgia Republicans pulled a Texas-style re-redistricting effort. I wouldn't be immediately opposed to a constitutional amendment mandating that states not redraw their congressional maps more than once a decade.

GA-12
Prediction: John Barrow (D-inc.) 52 - Max Burns (R) 47
Reality: Barrow 50 - Burns 50
This was the closest Democrats came to losing a seat in any of the House, Senate, or gubernatorial races. That is unprecedented. Also, I still don't understand what made Max Burns such a good candidate.

Idaho-02:
Prediction: Bill Sali (R) 47 - Larry Grant (D) 43
Reality: Sali 50 - Grant 45
When Bill Sali was in the Idaho state legislature he suggested that breast cancer is caused by abortions, causing the Democratic House leader (a breast-cancer survivor herself!) to run from the room in tears. Ladies and gentleman, your House Republican freshman class president!

Illinois-GOV:
Prediction: Rod Blagojevich (D-inc.) 54 - Judy Baar Topinka (R) 43
Reality: Blagojevich 50 - Topinka 40
Another round numbers result! I love these.

IL-08:
Prediction: Melissa Bean (D-inc.) 51 - David McSweeney (R) 48
Reality: Bean 51 - McSweeney 44

IL-10
Prediction: Mark Kirk (R-inc.) 52 - Dan Seals (D) 47
Reality: Kirk 53 - Seals 47
I think Seals can win this one in 2008. Also I love when CNN calls IL-08 a "key race" and it turns out to be not as close as IL-10. Smooth. I love pompous journalists who claim an "inside scoop" on which races are the most contested, and then they really have no better idea than you would if you spent the weekend before the election looking at polls (which is probably what they actually did) or wrote 18,000 words predicting races. For the record, no campaigns that I failed to cover switched party control.

Indiana-02:
Prediction: Joe Donnelly (D) 53 - Chris Chocola (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Donnelly 54 - Chocola 46

IN-03:
Prediction: Mark Souder (R-inc.) 54 - Tim Hayhurst (D) 44
Reality: Souder 54 - Hayhurst 46

IN-07:
Prediction: Julia Carson (D-inc.) 52 - Eric Dickerson (R) 48
Reality: Carson 54 - Dickerson 46
Hey look, three races in the same state that had the same percentage result! Also, I really hope Carson either gets healthy, campaigns more, or retires from Congress next time. This one could be close.

IN-08:
Prediction: Brad Ellsworth (D) 53 - John Hostettler (R-inc.) 46
Reality: Ellsworth 61 - Hostettler 39
"Hostettler has a great ground game," I said. "This one will be close," I said. I wonder how many other House incumbents failed to break 40.

IN-09:
Prediction: Baron Hill (D) 50 - Mike Sodrel (R-inc.) 49
Reality: Hill 50 - Sodrel 46
Outside of Texas, the only House Democrat to lose his seat in 2004 or 2006 is Baron Hill. And now he's back!

Iowa-GOV:
Prediction: Chet Culver (D) 52 - Jim Nussle (R) 47
Reality: Culver 54 - Nussle 44

IA-01:
Prediction: Bruce Braley (D) 53 - Mike Whalen (R) 46
Reality: Braley 55 - Whalen 43
I give myself more credit than this looks here. The polls were close!

IA-03:
Prediction: Leonard Boswell (D-inc.) 54 - Jeff Lamberti (R) 46
Reality: Boswell 52 - Lamberti 46
I know that Lamberti is the state Senate President, but this still doesn't bode well for 2008.

Kansas-GOV:
Prediction: Kathleen Sebelius (D-inc.) 55 - Jim Barnett (R) 45
Reality: Sebelius 58 - Barnett 40
I cannot give myself credit here; the polls were never close. Sebelius is Kos' early pick for VP in 2008. Did you notice that the state Attorney General who tried to find out who had had abortions lost?

KS-02:
Prediction: Nancy Boyda (D) 50 - Jim Ryun (R-inc.) 49
Reality: Boyda 51 - Ryun 47
Note that it is not an upset if I predicted it correctly. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ignored this race until the last week or so, coming in with a big ad buy at the last minute. This is the first instance I've seen in politics of lulling someone into a false sense of security actually working.

Kentucky-02:
Prediction: Ron Lewis (R-inc.) 53 - Mike Weaver (D) 46
Reality: Lewis 55 - Weaver 45

KY-03:
Prediction: John Yarmuth (D) 52 - Anne Northup (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Yarmuth 51 - Northup 48
I dislike Jack Conway less for not helping us in 2004 now that we (eventually) took the seat back this time. To recap: Jack Conway almost beat Northup in 2002, declined to help Tony Miller much in 2004 so that Miller would lose and Conway could run again in 2006, Miller wound up losing by so much that it scared Conway off from running in 2006, and then somebody else ran and won the seat. That's good irony. But it's water under the bridge, and if he wants to run for governor in 2007, all the best. This was one of the first dominoes to fall for Team Republican on election night, and conservative commentators sounded upset that voters turfed out some kind of sweetheart hero who stood up so well for her constituents. That's not true. Anne Northup's campaigns are so genuinely mean that I can't imagine anyone would ever want her back in the public sphere. She has no significant accomplishments in Congress that a member of Congress isn't supposed to do already, and her signature effort, building two bridges between Louisville and Indiana to ease congestion, hasn't even broken ground after her ten years in Congress. This and her personal style (from what I've seen) make me think she won't have much more success in the future even without pointing out some of the more unsavory stories I've heard. Good riddance.

KY-04:
Prediction: Geoff Davis (R-inc.) 52 - Ken Lucas (D) 48
Reality: Davis 51 - Lucas 44
Lucas is reputed to be the only Democrat who can win in this district, so that's depressing. Also, I paid close attention to this district in 2004 when George Clooney's dad ran, and this district never seems to have public polling.

Louisiana-02:
Prediction: William Jefferson (D-inc.) 42 - Everyone else 48
Reality: Jefferson 30 - Everyone else 70
Since Jefferson was under 50% in this open primary, there's a runoff next month. I think he's done.

Maine-GOV:
Prediction: John Baldacci (D) 39 - Chandler Woodcock (R) 35 - Barbara Merrill (I) 16 - Pat LeMarche (G) 10
Reality: Baldacci 38 - Woodcock 30 - Merrill 21 - LeMarche 10
You know, for a four-way race this isn't half bad. I mostly overstated Woodcock's support and understated Merrill's support by about 5%. Also, rumor has it that we're finally going to get a top-tier Senate candidate in Maine next time, which is very exciting.

Maryland-SEN:
Prediction: Ben Cardin (D) 52 - Michael Steele (R) 47
Reality: Cardin 54 - Steele 44
I wish I could say Steele was done, but even if he missed out on RNC chair he's still going to get a TV show and run again sometime soon, either for governor in 2010 or Senate again when Mikulski retires. Funny how these Democratic-held Senate seats looked close at the time, and yet none of them turned out that way.

MD-01:
Prediction: Roscoe Bartlett (R-inc.) 56 - Andrew Duck (D) 42
Reality: Bartlett 59 - Duck 39
It's hard for me to fault candidates who get results like this too much, since this is pretty much the result of both of the non-presidential races I worked on. Still, that's pretty disappointing.

Massachusetts-GOV:
Prediction: Deval Patrick (D) 58 - Kerry Healey (R) 29 - Christy Mihos (I) 11
Reality: Patrick 56 - Healey 35 - Mihos 7
Kerry Healey did a smidgen better than I thought she would, but this was a landslide for pretty much the entire campaign. This is the first time a Democrat has been governor of Massachusetts since Dukakis.

Michigan-GOV:
Prediction: Jennifer Granholm (D-inc.) 53 - Dick DeVos (R) 46
Reality: Granholm 56 - DeVos 42
Earlier in the summer, DeVos had leads in this race outside the margin of error. It must have been tough for Granholm to hold her fire while he attacked her throughout the summer, but she saved her money for the fall and it paid off. She successfully turned the massive job losses in the state to a referendum on Bush, by blaming the president and linking Bush to DeVos. That's very slick.

MI-SEN:
Prediction: Debbie Stabenow (D-inc.) 52 - Michael Bouchard (R) 47
Reality: Stabenow 57 - Bouchard 41
If I had to make a prediction on this race a year or so ago, I probably would have guessed something very close to the eventual result. Michigan polls looked soggy for Democratic candidates for a while, though, and Republicans put a ton of money into Michigan in the final week of the campaign. Looks like a smooth move now!

MI-11:
Prediction: Thaddeus McCotter (R-inc.) 60 - Tony Trupiano (D) 40
Reality: McCotter 54 - Trupiano 43
Apparently this is a swing district in presidential races, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became more competitive in future cycles. Actually, two Democratic challengers in Michigan came within five and six points of actually winning, which I totally didn't see coming.

Minnesota-SEN:
Prediction: Amy Klobuchar (D) 60 - Mark Kennedy (R) 39
Reality: Klobuchar 58 - Kennedy 38
I had been worried at the start of the cycle that Minnesota Democrats never seemed to put up all-star candidates for federal office, but Klobuchar turned out to be a really terrific candidate. I just hope Al Franken's as good when he tries to turf out Norm Coleman in 2008.

MN-02:
Prediction: John Kline (R-inc.) 55 - Colleen Rowley (D) 44
Reality: Kline 56 - Rowley 40

MN-06:
Prediction: Michele Bachmann (R) 50 - Patty Wetterling (D) 49
Reality: Bachmann 50 - Wetterling 42
Patty Wetterling has a compelling personal story, but I'm starting to wonder whether she can translate those skills into the political arena.

Missouri-SEN:
Prediction: Claire McCaskill (D) 51 - Jim Talent (R-inc.) 49
Reality: McCaskill 50 - Talent 47
McCaskill won by having a strong rural performance, apparently regretting not doing much outside of St. Louis and Kansas City on her unsuccessful 2004 run for governor. This is both a good sign for whatever dynamo we put up as our presidential candidate in 2008: I think rural voters, especially outside the South, are much softer Republicans than the national commentariat believes.

Montana-SEN:
Prediction: Jon Tester (D) 51 - Conrad Burns (R-inc.) 48
Reality: Tester 49 - Burns 48
Conrad Burns has already yelled at reporters that he doesn't have to deal with them anymore.

Nebraska-SEN:
Prediction: Ben Nelson (D-inc.) 62 - Pete Ricketts (R) 27
Reality: Nelson 64 - Ricketts 36
This may have been my worst prediction in terms of math. You would think that if I predicted third-party candidates to take 11% of the vote I could have checked first to see if literally any third-party candidates were running. Not so much. In any event, this stomping more or less makes Ben Nelson the leader of prairie Democrats and hopefully helps him prevent a serious challenge next time he runs. Also I'm pretty sure this means that Ricketts' first run at public office is also his last.

NE-01:
Prediction: Jeff Fortenberry (R-inc.) 55 - Maxine Moul 44
Reality: Fortenberry 59 - Moul 41
For the record, the generally ignored 2nd district was much closer than this, coming in at 55-45.

Nevada-SEN:
Prediction: John Ensign (R-inc.) 58 - Jack Carter (D) 41
Reality: Ensign 55 - Carter 41

NV-02:
Prediction: Dean Heller (R) 53 - Jill Derby (D) 47
Reality: Heller 51 - Derby 45

NV-03:
Prediction: Jon Porter (R-inc.) 52 - Tessa Hafen (D) 47
Reality: Porter 48 - Hafen 47
I can't really claim an understanding of the dynamics of this race, but Hafen is a former Harry Reid press secretary, so Reid's support may have helped keep this one close.

New Hampshire-GOV:
Prediction: John Lynch (D-inc.) 69 - Jim Coburn (R) 28
Reality: Lynch 74 - Coburn 26
You know this is an unusual year when you predict the Democratic candidate for governor in New Hampshire to take 69% of the vote and he actually exceeds your expectations. That's ridiculous. Actually, this is the fifth time out of six that a Democrat has won the governor's race in this state, and in addition to the House pickups in the next post, Democrats took the state House and Senate too. This is not a minor accomplishment: apparently Democrats last had control of both houses of the state legislature just before World War I, and since then Democrats controlled the state Senate for only one term, by a 13-11 margin, and haven't controlled the 400-member state House since. Democrats now control the Senate 14-10 and, after picking up roughly 80 seats, now control the House too. I can't overstate the psychological impact this has on New Hampshire politics: generation after generation of Republican speakers have run the state House, with the only question being whether they're conservative or really conservative. In fact, last term the House Speaker was Doug Scamman and the Democratic Leader was Jim Craig, and their fathers had been House Speaker and Democratic Leader back in the 50s. Some things look like they'll never change, and then, before you know it, it's a whole new ballgame. Lynch has ruled himself out of a Senate run against John Sununu in 2008, though Jeanne Shaheen is considering a rematch. I've been hoping for that outcome: I think Lynch will make a terrific Senate candidate when Judd Gregg comes up for reelection in 2010.

NH-02:
Prediction: Paul Hodes (D) 52 - Charlie Bass (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Hodes 53 - Bass 45
There was a great shot in the Union Leader of Hodes fist-pumping when he won. He plays guitar too: lawyers can be cool.

New Jersey-SEN:
Prediction: Bob Menendez (D-inc.) 53 - Tom Kean Jr. (R) 47
Reality: Menendez 53 - Kean 45
I am concerned that Kean will make another run at this in 2008 against Frank Lautenberg in 2008, who apparently wants to run for reelection despite being 84 and one of the least popular senators in the country.

NJ-07:
Prediction: Mike Ferguson (R-inc.) 56 - Linda Stender (D) 44
Reality: Ferguson 49 - Stender 48
For the record, I only brought this race up in my prediction to dismiss Stender's chances. This was the closest I came to missing a campaign that wound up switching hands. I have changed my opinion on Stender, and I hope she can pull it off in 2008.

New York-GOV:
Prediction: Eliot Spitzer (D) 70 - John Faso (R) 27
Reality: Spitzer 69 - Faso 29
You know Spitzer's a failed governor out of the gate given that he can't even take 70 percent of the vote statewide. That said, always nice when your opponent can't crack 30. Someone asked me who they should support for governor a few days before the election, and I thought they were joking.

NY-SEN:
Prediction: Hillary Clinton (D-inc.) 63 - John Spencer (R) 34
Reality: Clinton 67 - Spencer 31
Unlike every other campaign staff in the country, Senator Clinton's top-level campaign team is going to stay on through December 31st. This is just for clean-up and stuff, and there's no connection between her top strategists staying on board for no reason and anything else she may be planning on doing. Also, although the $30 million she spent on this campaign obviously went largely to 2008 preparation, I am no longer convinced that she's that much of a frontrunner. This is going to be the most crowded Democratic field in decades, and I'm not convinced that Barack Obama won't do better than her in early polling (note that John Edwards has already topped her in Iowa polling), and no one besides White House alums seem to want her as their first choice. We may have to wait for President Herseth before we have a First Husband.

NY-Comptroller
Prediction: Alan Hevesi (D-inc.) 49 - Chris Callaghan (R) 48
Reality: Hevesi 56 - Callaghan 39
Man, thank goodness that's over.

NY-03:
Prediction: Peter King (R-inc.) 57 - Dave Mejias (D) 41
Reality: King 56 - Mejias 44
I think this one can become competitive in 2008.

NY-19:
Prediction: John Hall (D) 52 - Sue Kelly (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Hall 51 - Kelly 49
I'm still not sure exactly what Sue Kelly did to lose, but I guess being a Republican was good enough in competitive districts this year. Also, despite having been a 70s rocker, John Hall is the most conservative-looking of all the Democratic challengers I saw this year.

NY-20:
Prediction: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 54 - John Sweeney (R-inc.) 46
Reality: Gillibrand 53 - Sweeney 47
Does this mean there's an opening at Boies Schiller?

NY-24:
Prediction: Mike Arcuri (D) 52 - Ray Meier (R) 47
Reality: Arcuri 54 - Meier 45
It's hard to say early on which seats will be uncompetitive in 2008; so much depends on who steps up. But this was a Republican-held open seat, with strong challengers on each side, and Arcuri still won by nine points. Hopefully that scares off a few folks.

NY-25:
Prediction: Jim Walsh (R-inc.) 53 - Dan Maffei (D) 46
Reality: Walsh 51 - Maffei 49
Awesome! I was concerned my prediction skewed too heavily Democratic. Too bad the blogosphere and the DCCC both ignored this district.

NY-26:
Prediction: Tom Reynolds (R-inc.) 54 - Jack Davis (D) 46
Reality: Reynolds 52 - Davis 48
I wonder how this would have gone if the Democratic candidate had gone out and campaigned? Also, I hear this one turned on a freak snowstorm last month that allowed Reynolds to come home and play the experienced congressman who knew how to pull the levers of Washington to get federal help for the district.

North Carolina-11:
Prediction: Heath Shuler (D) 56 - Charles Taylor (R-inc.) 44
Reality: Shuler 54 - Taylor 46
I just like saying "Congressman Shuler." Also, the national pundits seem to think that Heath Shuler is the world's most conservative Democrat, and they're right. Congressman-elect Shuler's first substantive post-election event was about unfair trade agreements with Senator-elect Sherrod Brown, who as we all know is way too liberal to be elected statewide in Ohio. The lesson: there's a reason they're nationally recognized political analysts and I'm some chump with a blog.

Ohio-GOV:
Prediction: Ted Strickland (D) 60 - Kenneth Blackwell (R) 39
Reality: Strickland 60 - Blackwell 37

OH-SEN:
Prediction: Sherrod Brown (D) 54 - Mike DeWine (R-inc.) 46
Reality: Brown 56 - DeWine 44
Sherrod Brown is way too liberal to be elected statewide in Ohio.

OH-06:
Prediction: Charlie Wilson (D) 55 - Chuck Blasdel (R) 45
Reality: Wilson 62 - Blasdel 38
This may not be the swing district I suspected.

OH-12:
Prediction: Pat Tiberi (R-inc.) 58 - Bob Shamansky (D) 41
Reality: Tiberi 58 - Shamansky 42
I completely made up this prediction, and I was so close to getting it right!

OH-13:
Prediction: Betty Sutton (D) 56 - Craig Foltin (R) 43
Reality: Sutton 61 - Foltin 39
This also may not be much of a swing district.

OH-18:
Prediction: Zack Space (D) 55 - Joy Padgett (R) 44
Reality: Space 62 - Padgett 38
The spread here is because of scandal, but I'm still impressed. Space may actually pull this one out in 2008.

Oklahoma-GOV:
Prediction: Brad Henry (D-inc.) 58 - Ernest Istook (R) 42
Reality: Henry 67 - Istook 33
I don't even know why I do this stuff sometimes; I thought I had both candidates and the state dynamics pegged, and I'm still nine points off. Note that Istook is a sitting congressman in a rock-red Republican state. What do you think it feels like to run for governor as a congressman, lose, and then come back to Washington for the lame-duck session? By the way, I hope Henry runs for Senate someday.

Oregon-GOV:
Prediction: Ted Kulongoski (D-inc.) 53 - Ron Saxton (R) 46
Reality: Kulongoski 51 - Saxton 43
Hearing Kulongoski tell it, electoral challenges are more like nuisances. Oh, there's always someone wanting to take you out in the primary if you stand up to unions right before an election year. Oh, the Republicans always come up with somebody. I'm impressed these challenges always seem to end up as unimpressive as he makes them look.

Pennsylvania-GOV:
Prediction: Ed Rendell (D-inc.) 57 - Lynn Swann (R) 42
Reality: Rendell 60 - Swann 40
On Election Day, I saw a van go by with speakers on top, exhorting us all to go vote for Ed Rendell. That's right, Back To The Future style. That made my day. (Actually, maybe taking back the House and Senate made my day. Or at least Anne Northup losing.) So what does Rendell do after this? I don't think he's viable as a presidential candidate, and he's already been DNC chair. I figure either he gets a national TV talk show or he runs for Senate in 2010. I'm happy with either.

PA-SEN:
Prediction: Bob Casey Jr. (D) 55 - Rick Santorum (R-inc.) 45
Reality: Casey 59 - Santorum 41
This race would have gone the other way had I not walked through Philadelphia for a few hours on the afternoon of election day making sure all the polling places were functional. The major crisis that day was a Democratic city committee member passing out "How do you know your vote counted? You don't" cards that a voter considered electioneering. (It's not: that's just issue advocacy, even if it should still probably be outside the polling place.) Anyway, this was high-level stuff well out of the intellectual range of anyone who's not in law school, so it's good they had us doing it. Alas, Santorum has decided that the support of 41% of the Keystone State is not enough to propel him to the presidency. I'm a little disappointed: I was hoping he would help splinter the socially conservative vote and help nominate someone who doesn't really scare me. (As for gaming out the other side's presidential primary, let's just remember that the Carter White House was thrilled when Reagan won the nomination.) I think Casey is a good guy, and hopefully he'll be progressive enough in the Senate that he'll avoid a primary in six years.

PA-07:
Prediction: Joe Sestak (D) 54 - Curt Weldon (R-inc.) 44
Reality: Sestak 56 - Weldon 44
Man, good riddance. I also like saying "Sestak."

PA-10:
Prediction: Chris Carney (D) 54 - Don Sherwood (R) 45
Reality: Carney 53 - Sherwood 47
The only reason it was this close is because this is such a Republican-leaning district. Carney will face a tough challenge next time around.

Rhode Island-GOV:
Prediction: Don Carcieri (R-inc.) 53 - Charlie Fogarty (D) 45
Reality: Carcieri 51 - Fogarty 49
Wow! I don't know anyone who seriously thought Fogarty would win or even come this close. I wonder if he's a great campaigner or if the DSCC just turned out a bunch of Whitehouse voters and this is a subsidiary result. Also, this means 16 straight years of Republican rule in the great state of Rhode Island. Think Lincoln Chafee will run for governor in 2010 as a Democrat?

RI-SEN:
Prediction: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 52 - Lincoln Chafee (R-inc.) 47
Reality: Whitehouse 53 - Chafee 47
Finally, what might be the most liberal state in the union finally has two Democratic senators. Chafee said after the election that he might leave the Republican Party, which might be the best example I've seen of "too little, too late." I have heard that Whitehouse is not unbelievably intellectually rigorous, which I hope is not true.

South Carolina-GOV:
Prediction: Mark Sanford (R-inc.) 56 - Tommy Moore (D) 43
Reality: Sanford 55 - Moore 45
The funny thing is that I checked out this result a day or so after the election and saw that Sanford had only won 51-49. I was shocked and amazed, to say nothing of thrilled for the future of South Carolina Democrats. Then I came back just now and discovered, actually, South Carolina just counts ballots really slowly. This is still a good showing.

SC-05:
Prediction: John Spratt (D) 56 - Ralph Norman (R) 42
Reality: Spratt 57 - Norman 43

South Dakota: Referendum to repeal the abortion ban
Prediction: Fail 55 - 45
Reality: Fail 56 - 44

Tennessee-SEN:
Prediction: Bob Corker (R) 54 - Harold Ford Jr. (D) 46
Reality: Corker 51 - Ford 48
Lost in the shuffle over Democrats taking back the Senate was the fact that Harold Ford did really, really well, and much better than predicted by the final polls. For an African-American Democrat to pull 48% of the vote in a Tennessee Senate race is nothing short of remarkable. I'm not sure Ford has any better chance against Lamar Alexander in 2008, but I do hope he runs.

Texas-GOV:
Prediction: Rick Perry (R-inc.) 38 - Chris Bell (D) 25 - Carole Strayhorn (I) 24 - Kinky Friedman (I) 11
Reality: Perry 39 - Bell 30 - Strayhorn 18 - Friedman 12
In my preview, I didn't sufficiently criticize Rick Perry's reelection slogan, "I'm proud of Texas. How 'bout you?" Besides the fact that being proud of your state and its people is elitist and offensive if you're from the northeast, this is a ridiculous argument: "if you're proud of the state you live in, vote to reelect its governor." First, I'm pretty sure there was Texas pride before Rick Perry inherited the governorship, so this boils down to "I didn't wreck the place," which for all I know isn't even true. (OK, it's true.) Also, everyone not between the ages of 14 and 18 is proud of the place they live in. Who wants to say "I live in a shithole?" Now Rick Perry's argument becomes, "I want to like the place I live in. How 'bout you?" Finally, I know this is rare in Texas-bred politicians, but the either/or proposition discourages a thoughtful approach to government. "I'm sorry, you want to fix the state water distribution system? Why aren't you proud of Texas?" Myself, I'm proud of Texas for letting the Democrat crack 30 in a four-way race. Apparently we may have some pretty good Senate candidates in 2008 against unpopular Senator John Cornyn too.

TX-17:
Prediction: Chet Edwards (D-inc.) 54 - Van Taylor (R) 46
Reality: Edwards 58 - Taylor 40

TX-22:
Prediction: Nick Lampson (D) 53 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) 41
Reality: Lampson 52 - Sekula-Gibbs 42
Even though I didn't get it right, this may be my favorite prediction on account of the difficulty of predicting a write-in performance. Sekula-Gibbs, mind you, is now a congresswoman, having won the special election the same day to hold Tom DeLay's seat until the next Congress takes office in January. It's worth noting that Tom DeLay's old staffers all resigned within two or three days of her taking office. (I repeat: these are the people who thought it was acceptable to work for Tom DeLay.) She called for a congressional investigation into this serious problem. She also became upset when neither the President of the United States nor the Vice President of the United States came to her congressional office opening, and she expects to solve the immigration problem during her seven weeks in lame-duck office. She may not be the Republican nominee in 2008.

Vermont-SEN:
Prediction: Bernie Sanders (I) 59 - Richard Tarrant (R) 38
Reality: Sanders 65 - Tarrant 32

VT-AL:
Prediction: Peter Welch (D) 51 - Martha Rainville (R) 46
Reality: Welch 53 - Rainville 45

Virginia-SEN:
Prediction: Jim Webb (D) 52 - George Allen (R-inc.) 48
Reality: Webb 50 - Allen 49
I am really, really happy that George Allen is out of the Senate. If he and Mark Warner run for governor in 2009, though, that would be one hell of a campaign.

VA-10:
Prediction: Frank Wolf (R-inc.) 54 - Judy Feder (D) 44
Reality: Wolf 57 - Feder 41
So do you think this affects Feder's standing as dean of Georgetown's school of public policy? Also, Wolf is a profile in courage; he came back from Iraq in September 2005 and told everyone how much Iraq is improving. Now, after the election, he points out that Iraq was unbelievably dangerous in September 2005 and he's not surprised it's gotten this bad. Way to buck the party line!

Washington-SEN:
Prediction: Maria Cantwell (D-inc.) 53 - Mike McGavick (R) 47
Reality: Cantwell 57 - McGavick 40
Ha!

WA-05:
Prediction: Cathy McMorris (R-inc.) 53 - Peter Goldmark (D) 46
Reality: McMorris 56 - Goldmark 44
Peter Goldmark is currently the Haverford alum most likely to be elected to Congress in 2008.

WA-08:
Prediction: Dave Reichert (R-inc.) 52 - Darcy Burner (D) 48
Reality: Reichert 51 - Burner 49
This one hurt both because Burner is a fantastic candidate who I really hope goes far and because for some reason the votes took a week to come in. And this was largely Seattle too, not exactly the most rural place on earth. I blame Dave Reichert.

West Virginia-SEN:
Prediction: Robert Byrd (D-inc) 62 - John Raese (R) 37
Reality: Byrd 64 - Raese 34
I decided to go back and see when the last time was when Robert Byrd's vote percentage was greater than his age. In 1982, Byrd was 64 when he won reelection with 68% of the vote. 2006 is actually his worst performance since being elected to the Senate in 1964.

WV-01:
Prediction: Alan Mollohan (D-inc.) 58 - Chris Wakim (R) 41
Reality: Mollohan 64 - Wakim 36
I try to avoid gloating, but I love thinking back to the pickups Republicans were supposedly going to make this cycle, and then seeing how they did.

WV-02:
Prediction: Shelley Moore Capito (R-inc.) 56 - Mike Callaghan (D) 44
Reality: Capito 57 - Callaghan 43

Wisconsin-GOV:
Prediction: Jim Doyle (D-inc.) 53 - Mark Green (R) 46
Reality: Doyle 53 - Green 45

Posted by Terry McMahon at 9:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

I'll do some election recaps on Thursday. They may be shorter than the 18,000 words I put into the election preview. In the meantime, I'll link this YouTube video which is both outdated and really, totally awesome. I never knew George Michael could see so clearly what was going to happen. Or he was writing about Wham!, but it's still awesome. Link

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For the record, I did some checking and my 18,000-word election preview below is by far the longest thing I've ever written, which is both fantastic and frightening.

I also wanted to thank everyone who's been stopping by today, mostly through Technorati and Google Blog Search. Although I knew it was happening already, it's nice to see that there are people out there looking up Mike Arcuri, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tony Trupiano, Michael Steele, and "ted poe freak." Thanks for stopping by!

Posted by Terry McMahon at 9:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

WY-AL (Republican-held)
Gary Trauner (D) 49 - Barbara Cubin (R) 47
Winning this one would be nice. The district covers the entire state of Wyoming, which voted overwhelmingly for Bush in both his runs for president. The current incumbent is Barbara Cubin, who once said on the House floor that all African-Americans in African-American communities are being treated for drug use and most recently told her Libertarian opponent after the debate that she would have slapped him in the face if he wasn't in that chair. No, she didn't need leverage; the guy has MS and uses a wheelchair. Fortunately, our Democratic candidate is an all-star who has hit well over 10,000 homes in the district and seems like an upstanding guy. He'll be about a million times better than his opponent.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Jim Doyle (D) 53 - Mark Green (R) 46
Wait, I forgot, Mark Green is Republican congressman #5 who may lose both his state's gubernatorial race and cost his party his congressional seat. Doyle almost definitely would have lost had popular former governor Tommy Thompson decided to enter the race, but given that the Republicans only have Green and everything he's voted for in Washington, Doyle has been able to keep a noticeable if unexciting lead.

WI-08 (Open, Republican-held)
John Gard (R) 54 - Steve Kagen (D) 45
Actually, despite what I just said above, I don't think this result will be very close. It's always good to see doctors like Kagen running as Democrats, but this district is apparently fairly conservative and Gard is the speaker of the WIsconsin Assembly, so he's got some political experience already. It would be nice to see an upset here but I doubt it'll happen this time.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Democratic-held)
Robert Byrd (D) 62 - John Raese (R) 37
For some reason, this race was supposed to be really competitive, but it never turned out that way. Raese almost beat Jay Rockefeller, West Virginia's other Democratic senator, in 1984 but this time he never seemed to have it. Byrd is getting up there in years, but I'm glad he's putting in another round, mostly because Shelley Moore Capito would have run if he had chosen to retire and very well could have won. I'm not sure why Raese didn't get more traction here.

WV-01 (Democratic-held)
Alan Mollohan (D) 58 - Chris Wakim (R) 41
Mollohan supposedly became a target when it came out that he apparently misstated his assets on financial disclosure forms, but again, this race never took off.

WV-03 (Republican-held)
Shelley Moore Capito (R) 56 - Mike Callaghan (D) 44
I really liked Callaghan and I was happy to hear he had won his primary, but for some reason, like the other challengers in West Virginia this year, he never got any traction. Capito is considered a rising star and a likely candidate for Senate as soon as Byrd or Jay Rockefeller steps down. I hope we beat her before then.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Democratic-held)
Maria Cantwell (D) 53 - Mike McGavick (R) 47
Cantwell is a former congresswoman who lost, went to Real Networks before it got big, and then ran for Senate in 2000, barely squeezing out longtime Republican incumbent Slade "Skeletor" Gorton. She had some problems early in her reelection campaign when peace activists started loudly opposing her support for the Iraq war, and then she got a potentially dangerous challenge from Safeco CEO Mike McGavick, who not only self-funded but was Gorton's former chief of staff, suggesting he knows a little about politics too. McGavick turned out not to know everything about politics; he decided to acknowledge an old DUI that he knew would come out eventually so he could set the terms of the debate himself, but he omitted some stuff and misled on some other stuff. That blunted all his momentum, and he was never able to get it back. I don't think this will be a landslide, but I think Cantwell has it. By the way, Maria Cantwell is a big supporter of Jerry Springer's political campaigns, having worked for him when he was mayor of Cincinnati. True story.

WA-05 (Republican-held)
Cathy McMorris (R) 53 - Peter Goldmark (D) 46
Peter Goldmark is the best Haverford alum running for Congress this cycle; he's a rancher with a doctorate in molecular biology from Harvard and he came up with a better strain of wheat to use on his farm. That's good Democrat. Unfortunately, this is a conservative district, and even though McMorris is only a freshman herself, I think we need some more time to make inroads here.

WA-08 (Republican-held)
Dave Reichert (R) 52 - Darcy Burner (D) 48
Darcy Burner is one of everyone's favorite candidates this year; she's a former Microsoft executive running an unbelievable campaign for a first-time candidate and supposedly she's ridiculously funny in person. Reichert is a former sheriff who caught the Green River Killer, but Burner has effectively tied him to Bush even though Reichert has only spent one term in Congress (maybe that Air Force One photo-op with the president wasn't a good idea). Two weeks ago I would have predicted Burner to win but her momentum seems to have slowed. I hope we haven't seen the last of her.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Republican-held)
Jim Webb (D) 52 - George Allen (R) 48
This has been a big success for Democrats and the netroots no matter how it turns out: last year at this time George Allen did all his campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact, for a while in 2005 insider polls had Allen as the frontrunner to take the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Jim Webb won an astonishingly low-turnout primary (seriously, 2 percent) almost entirely based on his blogger buzz, which in turn was almost entirely created by his resume: a former Reagan Secretary of the Navy, he became disillusioned with the modern Republican Party and decided to become a Democrat and take his country back. Also he writes novels, which are apparently pretty good. In any event, 2006 revealed that Allen is both a racist and an asshole, and even if he squeaks out a win here he's pretty much damaged goods for 2008. I heard the interesting argument recently that Allen's fall may wind up a net loss for Democrats. Without Allen in the presidential race there aren't really any social conservatives in good standing running for president (McCain is obviously lying to someone; Romney is, god forbid, a Mormon; and Huckabee has no way to raise money), so instead of potentially nominating George Allen, social conservatives may give up and back a candidate who could actually win the general election. I never like the idea of hoping the other party nominates someone truly awful on the oft-illustrated theory that anything can happen, but there may be something here. McCain will be tough to beat. Incidentally, supposedly Allen's field program sucks.

VA-02 (Republican-held)
Phil Kellam (D) 50 - Thelma Drake (R) 49
Kellam is a good example of the kind of Democrat who I suspect always runs for Congress but never before received any attention from the national committees and thus never had a real shot at winning. Thelma Drake has pretty soft support as a one-term incumbent and Kellam is fairly well known as Virginia Beach's commissioner of the revenue. Actually, Kellam's family has apparently been Virginia Beach elite for decades, so he's counting on a lot of his father's old friends to carry him into office. Polls have been split here, but I read a profile of Kellam and liked him, so I'm giving him the edge.

VA-10 (Republican-held)
Frank Wolf (R) 54 - Judy Feder (D) 44
Man, some schools talk about public policy... Judy Feder is the dean of Georgetown's public policy school, and now she's running for Congress in this suburban DC district. The northern Virginia area is both rapidly gaining in population and trending heavily Democratic, so I suspect this seat will not be in Republican hands for long. Still, I believe this race became competitive too late to win this time, but with luck Frank Wolf won't be in Congress past 2008.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Senate (Open, Independent-held)
Bernie Sanders (I) 59 - Richard Tarrant (R) 38
This is an odd race. First off, the Senate's only independent is going to be succeeded by another independent. Second, Richard Tarrant is the richest guy in the state and a former local college basketball star. Third, Sanders is about to become the Senate's only socialist. Finally, despite all of Tarrant's money, this one won't be close.

VT-AL (Open, Independent-held)
Peter Welch (D) 51 - Martha Rainville (R) 46
Apparently in exchange for Democrats not running a Senate candidate (though Sanders will caucus with Senate Democrats), independent Vermont progressives decided not to run against state Senate Democratic Leader Peter Welch, who from the lack of noise in this race is poised to beat star Republican recruit Martha Rainville, head of the state National Guard. Actually, both parties tried to convince Rainville to run, but she said she's a Republican so now she's going down with the ship. I still think this will be close.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There are no exciting races in Utah this year, so I'll point out that outgoing Massachusetts Governor, practicing Mormon, and Salt Lake 2002 Olympic Committee savior Mitt Romney got some fine Utahns in some hot water a few weeks ago by appearing to come a little too close to having the Church of Jesus Christ and Latter-Day Saints and their collegiate vehicle, Brigham Young University, explicitly leverage their connections for his presidential campaign. I mean, it's no secret that Romney is going to rely on exploiting the massive Mormon network for his fundraising, but wow, hold the meetings off-campus guys.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Rick Perry (R) 38 - Chris Bell (D) 25 - Carole Strayhorn (I) 24 - Kinky Friedman (I) 11
This is a weird one; it looks like Perry is going to win reelection despite staying under 40 (and if anything my prediction is high). Bell only served one term in Congress, and I think he looks artificially competitive here because he would have the support of all knee-jerk Democrats anyway. (In other words, if his support in a two-way race topped out at 35, here it wouldn't show up.) Strayhorn is Scott McClellan's mom, and she dropped out of the Republican primary to run as an independent when it became clear she wouldn't win. Kinky Friedman is a comedic country singer who is a dilettante at best; he's one of those guys who thinks being unbelievably offensive is inherently funny to everyone except people who "can't take a joke." Finally, Rick Perry's slogan is a ridiculously jingoistic "I'm proud of Texas. How 'bout you?" I can't wait until Texas is competitive again.

TX-17 (Democratic-held)
Chet Edwards (D) 54 - Van Taylor (R) 46
Edwards is the last Democrat standing from the 2003 Republican re-redistricting; all other targets went down in 2004 and to some pretty awful people. Taylor was considered a prize recruit for the Republicans given that he's an Iraq War vet and every other Iraq War vet is running as a Democrat. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Taylor has campaigned like a guy who went to Iraq and still thinks the Republicans are doing a good job. Still, because of the demographics of the district I'm picking this one to be fairly close. I hope Democrats have someone to replace Edwards when he retires.

TX-22 (Open, Republican-held)
Nick Lampson (D) 53 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) 41
This might be the toughest race to predict in the country. This is Tom DeLay's old seat, which in a botched withdrawal now can only go Republican via write-in. Republicans have mostly coalesced around Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a Houston City Councilor, and in Texas intent counts for write-ins, so even something like "SSG" would count for Sekula-Gibbs. Still, she better hope people remember her name and even to write her in at all. Republicans claim that the district is well-educated and point to a poll showing Lampson only leading a write-in candidate 36-35, but I think that's is a bridge too far.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Open, Republican-held)
Bob Corker (R) 54 - Harold Ford Jr. (D) 46
Well, at least Bill Frist is leaving the Senate. This has been an ugly race, with blatant racial suggestions on the part of the Corker campaign and the Republican National Committee to remind Tennessee voters that all Harold Ford wants to do is seduce white women. Besides being morally reprehensible, it's a shame because Harold Ford is a terrific Senate candidate: a good guy ideologically in line with the state who is running a fantastic campaign. His ads are actually charming and actually funny, to the point where an African-American Democrat has a serious shot at winning this state that Bush won in a walk in 2004. That, unfortunately, is the problem; even if this race weren't trending away from Ford, it's well established that minority candidates underperform their poll numbers in conservative states. It happened to Doug Wilder in Virginia and it happened to Bobby Jindal in Louisiana. I think some of the polls we've seen are outliers but I don't think Ford will make up the gap.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Referendum to repeal the abortion ban
Fail: 55-45
I am making that number up; I heard this is going to be close but I have no further idea. In 2005, the Republican-dominated state legislature passed and the Republican governor signed a ban on first-trimester abortions, which is clearly unconstitutional under Roe v. Wade. The idea is that the ban will be overturned in federal court (with an injunction to allow abortions again), followed by a court of appeals affirming the ruling, followed by the battle royale at the Supreme Court. I have no idea how that will go.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Mark Sanford (R) 56 - Tommy Moore (D) 43
Sanford seems to have fallen from the days when he was considered a leading candidate for a spot on the Republicans' 2008 presidential ticket, but Moore seems not to have been able to find much traction.

SC-05 (Democratic-held)
John Spratt (D) 56 - Ralph Norman (R) 42
This was supposed to be one of the GOP's best pickup opportunities; Spratt is the rare southern Democratic congressman not elected from a majority-minority district. The political climate has not been favorable to Republican challengers, even in South Carolina, and Norman hasn't been able to find much traction either.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Don Carcieri (R) 53 - Charlie Fogarty (D) 45
Republicans have held the governor's office in Rhode Island for 16 of the last 20 years, and it looks like they're going to win their fourth election in a row here. Carcieri's presence in the governor's office can be chalked up largely to Myrth York, who ran for governor in an open-seat year in 1994 and lost. If someone loses an election, I think there's a very strong presumption against supporting them for a second run, especially in such a Democratic-leaning state such as Rhode Island, unless that candidate can make a strong argument that they deserve another shot. If you've made the first serious Democratic run in your district in years, I say a second try is warranted. If you blew it against Lincoln Almond, you probably don't. Somehow Myrth York got the nomination in 1998 for a second run against Almond, and she lost that too, ending her political career. Or so you'd think. She ran again in 2002, beating out two candidates who definitely would have beaten Republican businessman Carcieri. York's popularity, however, maxes out at 45 percent, so Carcieri has been governor for four years. I never understand how stronger Democratic candidates don't run in such a Democratic-leaning state; there's nothing specifically wrong with Fogarty but there has to be a more compelling figure in state government. (I wonder what would have happened if Matt Brown had run?) I suspect the strong Democratic lean makes being a major player at the state house so appealing that no one wants to risk a higher run. In any event, this race has trended Republican, and I'm afraid Carcieri looks to retain.

Senate (Republican-held)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 52 - Lincoln Chafee (R) 47
This Senate seat has been the bete noire of the Democratic Party for thirty years now, as Lincoln Chafee and his father John have beaten back everything the Democrats have thrown at them. Lincoln Chafee is even more liberal than his father, but he's a weaker politician too. Democrats were dealt an unfortunate hand in 1999 when the senior Chafee passed away, so instead of Lincoln running for the open seat his father had already decided to vacate, Lincoln was appointed to the Senate seat and went in with the presumption of incumbency. That said, though, the petulant Democratic Party establishment deserves some of the blame too for sitting on their hands when their preferred candidate lost the primary (and to a sitting congressman too, not even someone crazy). This time, however, my favorite candidate, Matt Brown, wasn't able to reach the primary when a poorly handled campaign finance scandal doomed his campaign. I had no great challenge throwing my support to either the excellent Sheldon Whitehouse or his awesome slogan ("Finally, a Whitehouse in Washington we can trust"), and I was thrilled when Whitehouse opened up an 8-10 point lead earlier in the fall. Again, Democrats always think we can beat Chafee, and it never happens. Much to my horror, Chafee has almost entirely closed the gap and might actually pull this one out again. Still, I think the jig is up.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Ed Rendell (D) 57 - Lynn Swann (R) 42
So Lynn Swann is now overrated as a football player, broadcaster and political candidate. I have yet to figure out either why Swann took the lead last spring or why Rendell so effectively bounced back, but you have to give Team Rendell credit for staying calm and waiting for Swann to make a couple of stupid remarks to show that he wasn't ready for the job. Ed Rendell is a fantastic campaigner, from his days in Philly politics straight up to his tenure as DNC chair, and it's no surprise that he knows how this works.

Senate (Republican-held)
Bob Casey Jr. (D) 55 - Rick Santorum (R) 45
Rick Santorum is one of the most awful members of the Senate, completely sanctimonious and eager to make this country a theocracy. To his credit, he has never vacillated on his positions, even writing a book on his opinions on American culture last year that was an opposition researcher's dream, but he's still well beyond right-wing. Casey faced troubles early when pro-choice activists resented the way establishment Democrats anointed Casey, who is pro-life, as the party's Senate nominee and discouraged anyone else from running. I think the criticisms are a little unfair; the only other serious potential candidate I knew of was the state treasurer who had switched parties only four years ago, which doesn't exactly fire up the partisan base either. Besides, although I'm vigorously pro-choice, I don't resent Casey both because he's relentlessly progressive on most issues from education to the environment to unions and because I understand that a Democratic Senate will be far more supportive of the right to choose than the Senate we have now. If someone wants to find a more progressive primary challenger to Casey in 2012 who will win the general election, be my guest. Fortunately, it looks like my worst fears will not be realized and Casey will be able to pull this one out, all the more surprising because I thought Rick Santorum was supposed to be a fantastic campaigner. (He has, after all, carried this politically split state twice.) As Chris Bowers said on MyDD, Santorum should have run as a conservative in Pennsylvania's conservative areas and an elder statesman fighting for federal funding everywhere else, and he should have attacked Casey from the left in the suburbs just to confuse everyone there. As it is, it looks like Casey's strategy of not doing anything and hoping this race really never happens seems to be paying off. I'm not complaining.

PA-04 (Republican-held)
Melissa Hart (R) 51 - Jason Altmire (D) 49
Literally all I know about this race is that it's in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Hart has somehow gone from safe incumbent to toss-up in about a week. This pick is based on my increasing pessimism, so I'll go ahead and hope I'm wrong.

PA-06 (Republican-held)
Lois Murphy (D) 51 - Jim Gerlach (R) 49
It's hard to tell apart all these competitive suburban Philadelphia districts; the longtime Republican area started trending Democratic in the 1990s when Bill Clinton did such a terrific job as president and the national Republican Party started advocating theocracy. Here, Harvard Law alum Lois Murphy is making her second run at Gerlach after picking up 49% of the vote in 2004. Murphy has led in most polls this time around, but the NRCC has been making robo-calls that call people between 5am and 6am, saying "This is a call about Lois Murphy," then pausing for a long time to make people think Lois Murphy is calling them that early in the morning. The call eventually goes through a litany of anti-Murphy material.

PA-07 (Republican-held)
Joe Sestak (D) 54 - Curt Weldon (R) 44
This is one of the races I most hope turns Democratic. Curt Weldon, besides being your run-of-the-mill archconservative, co-chaired a congressional event for Sun Myung Moon of "Moonie" and owning the Washington Times fame. He also planned a congressional expedition to find WMD in Iraq himself. So that's bad. He then attacked his Democratic opponent, Joe Sestak, for not sending his daughter to a Pennsylvania hospital, even though Children's Hospital in DC was the only hospital that could treat his daughter's malignant brain tumor; Weldon refused to apologize. So Curt Weldon is an asshole. Weldon has a daughter too, and it recently came to light that Weldon is under federal investigation for using his congressional influence to steer contracts to his daughter's business. Sestak, on the other hand, is a 31-year naval veteran who retired at the rank of vice admiral. So I really hope Sestak wins this race. He was a netroots candidate from the start and won over establishment Democrats and political observers quickly. He'll be a terrific congressman.

PA-08 (Republican-held)
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 51 - Patrick Murphy (D) 48
This is a tough one to give to the GOP, because I think Patrick Murphy is a fantastic candidate too. Murphy is an Iraq War vet and Fitzgerald is only a first-term congressman, but most recent polls have shown Murphy behind by a larger margin than I'd like. I still think this will be close, but for some reason we don't seem to be pulling this one out.

PA-10 (Republican-held)
Chris Carney (D) 54 - Don Sherwood (R) 45
This is the most conservative of the contested Pennsylvania districts, but it's also the most likely to flip because Don Sherwood had to go and assault his mistress. This is the race that provided the impetus for the strategy to contest every district; Sherwood's affair came to light in the middle of 2004 but there was literally no Democrat running against him. This is one of the few campaigns where the Mark Foley scandal had an impact: Carney maximized the effect by running an ad where a Republican who had previously supported Sherwood said he didn't know how he could tell his daughter what her congressman had done. This is another likely pickup.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 2:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Ted Kulongoski (D) 53 - Ron Saxton (R) 46
Ted Kulongoski is the most endangered Democratic incumbent I have met in the basement of a church this year. He came and spoke at NYU Law, but this was during that ridiculous graduate-student strike (yes, you read that right) so progressive public speakers all just agreed to speak off-campus and avoid the hassle, uh, support the cause. At NYU this isn't as big a deal because "on-campus" is such a nebulous concept, so instead of at the law school I saw Kulongoski at the church next door. We talked about whether the Marlins would move to Portland.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Brad Henry (D) 58 - Ernest Istook (R) 42
This race is less competitive than other gubernatorial races I didn't write about, but then again, those states had other competitive elections. While Brad Carson's excellent 2004 campaign shows that pretty much no Democrat can win a Senate seat from Oklahoma anymore, Brad Henry shows the governor's office is not out of grasp, winning a shocker against former congressman and NFL Hall of Famer Steve Largent in 2002. His current opponent, U.S. Rep. Ernest Istook, hasn't gotten much traction, either from a lackluster campaign or being tied to the handily wide-ranging Jack Abramoff scandal. There are a lot of midwestern and western Democratic governors who will win landslides this year even though their states are tough to impossible for Democratic presidential candidates to carry.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Ted Strickland (D) 60 - Kenneth Blackwell (R) 39
The Ohio Republican Party is in a world of hurt. For starters, Governor Bob Taft is the least popular governor in the country, sitting on a 15% approval rating in some polls. The party has faced any number of scandals in the past two years, my favorite of which is the Republican fundraiser who convinced the state Bureau of Workers' Compensation to invest $50 million into his coin business. Now, whoops, $12 million worth of state-owned coins are missing. So if you get injured on the job, make sure you do it in Ohio. Even without the scandal and rank incompetence, I suspect Democrats would be winning the Ohio governor's office anyway. Ted Strickland is a congressman, minister and avid hunter (he went hunting with John Kerry the week before the 2004 elections), and he has done a fantastic job of keeping Ohio's ideologically diverse Democratic base on his side. Ken Blackwell, on the other hand, is Ohio's Secretary of State, who along with Florida's Katherine Harris will directly lead to a series of laws over the next decade or two preventing state elections coordinators from supporting candidates. (Bush has called Blackwell "a nut" despite Blackwell co-chairing Bush's 2004 Ohio campaign.) Blackwell is also a Pat Robertson/Alan Keyes conservative when it comes to social issues, a position upon which he has inexplicably decided to focus his campaign. This one won't be close, and thank goodness.

Senate (Republican-held)
Sherrod Brown (D) 54 - Mike DeWine (R) 46
I like the symmetry between this race and the governor's race: here the Democrats are running a candidate who might be considered too liberal to win in the general election, whereas Strickland might be considered too conservative to be a Democrat. The campaigns seem to have worked well together, though, and tomorrow they're both going to win. It took me a while to like Sherrod Brown. He declined to run for the Senate seat, and seeing no strong Democrat running, Paul Hackett, hero of the 2005 special election for Ohio's 2nd district, decided to run himself. When Mike DeWine's poll numbers dropped a little further, Brown reversed course and jumped into the race, and then Democratic establishment folks like Chuck Schumer shoved Hackett out. Subsequently I discovered that Hackett had done little to no fundraising, so while he still might have won the primary, there was no way he could have won the general election. So I started liking Sherrod Brown more, especially since he's solidly progressive, unafraid to admit it, and an awesome campaigner. I saw some of his ads and realized that there's an Ohio accent for the first time; he talks exactly the same way my cousins do. That was awesome.

OH-01 (Republican-held)
John Cranley (D) 50 - Steve Chabot (R) 48
I'm not sure what Chabot has done so wrong (besides the worst comb-over in Congress, truly an accomplishment) beyond being your standard everyday knee-jerk Republican, but he does have one of the most African-American districts of any Republican in Congress, and that I can't support. Cranley seems like a pretty good guy, and he's managed to link Chabot to Bob Taft and George Bush's scandals to the point where this race is a tossup, so I hope he pulls this one out.

OH-02 (Republican-held)
Victoria Wulsin (D) 51 - Jean Schmidt (R) 48
This may be wishful thinking, but I can make a pretty good case for hoping for a Democratic win here. This seat became open in the middle of 2005 when Bush appointed Rob Portman to be US Trade Representative, and given that this Cincinnati-area district was his most successful district in Ohio, conventional wisdom held that the Republican primary would amount to the general election. Jean Schmidt won the primary and then ran into a head of steam called Paul Hackett, a lawyer and Iraq war veteran who seemed not to care that he wasn't supposed to win. Hackett proudly promoted Democratic causes and paired his policy views with his own aggressive style, calling Bush a liar and saying he didn't give a whit whether someone else wanted to get a same-sex marriage. He excited Democrats nationwide and seemed a threat to win the thing outright, falling four points short. Congresswoman Schmidt wasn't done, though: when former Marine, conservative Democrat, Iraq War supporter and 24-year U.S. Rep. John Murtha reluctantly concluded that it was time to bring the troops home, Schmidt actually went onto the House floor and told Murtha that Marines don't cut and run. Even Republicans booed (you're not supposed to attack specific House members on the floor), and Schmidt tried to excuse herself by saying she didn't know Murtha was a Marine. She dodged a primary challenge this spring, and now Democratic candidate Victoria Wulsin has stayed close, even leading in some polls. I'm not sure how Democratic this district has really become, but it's clearly more so for Hackett's enthusiasm, and I think he deserves a lot of credit. This district also serves as an example of how supposedly Republican districts can turn blue (or at least less red) with an aggressive local Democratic Party infrastructure.

OH-06 (Open, Democratic-held)
Charlie Wilson (D) 55 - Chuck Blasdel (R) 45
This is the seat that Ted Strickland is giving up to run for governor. Charlie Wilson was considered a strong favorite to win this seat until his campaign failed to come up with the 50 signatures required to run. Now, I know campaigns make mistakes all the time, and really this was some moron staffer and not representative of an entire dysfunctional operation, but some campaigns have much tougher signature thresholds than that. California recall supporters had to submit over 700,000 valid signatures there to make the recall happen. The Wilson campaign then had to gear up for a massive write-in effort to make sure he won the primary (with Republicans doing their part to try to puff up minor Democratic write-in candidates to deny Wilson the nomination), but, as it turns out, the write-in effort wound up turning the Wilson campaign into a whip-smart organization and introduced a lot of voters in the district to Charlie Wilson in the process. That was a close shave, but he should win this one handily.

OH-12 (Republican-held)
Pat Tiberi (R) 58 - Bob Shamansky (D) 41
Shamansky, oddly enough, is a former congressman himself, having served one term in the early 80s. This election is mostly discussed nationally in the sense that if this is a truly Democratic wave election, even Pat Tiberi could lose. He won't.

OH-13 (Open, Democratic-held)
Betty Sutton (D) 56 - Craig Foltin (R) 43
This is the seat that Sherrod Brown is leaving to run for Senate. This district leans Democratic to begin with, but the toxic atmosphere for Republicans in Ohio and the strong Democratic candidate put this seat out of play. Sutton used the support of EMILY's List (Early Money Is Like Yeast - get it?) to win a crowded primary that included a shopping mall heiress in her 20s and a former congressman named Tom Sawyer.

OH-15 (Republican-held)
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 53 - Deborah Pryce (R) 45
This Columbus-area district is trending away from the Republicans, and the incumbent congresswoman is the fourth-ranking Republican in the House and played a leadership role in pretty much everything Congress has done in the last few years. Since Congress has a worse approval rating than even President Bush, I'm picking Kilroy to pull this one out. Pryce also just walked out of an interview with CNN a couple of days ago, publishing a statement that "what's happening in Iraq is not a direct reflection on me." That's a fascinating thought, but do you think that if a member of the House Republican leadership announced that she would not support the war, we would have rushed in nearly so quickly with no plan for the aftermath? I don't think she gets off so easily.

OH-18 (Open, Republican-held)
Zack Space (D) 55 - Joy Padgett (R) 44
Bob Ney, the current congressman here, faces a maximum of ten years for his attempts to cover up the Jack Abramoff scandal, so he's not a real viable candidate this time around. I'm not sure Zack Space is necessarily a viable candidate either, but when Ney withdrew after the primary Republican party leaders got to pick the nominee, and they stupidly let Ney make the call. Here's a tip for all you scandal-mongers out there: if you want your party to hold the seat after you get caught, don't let the Democrat call his opponent "Bob Ney's chosen successor." Also, for some reason Padgett's bankruptcy is a strike against her. This district will be a top Republican target in 2008.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There are no competitive races in North Dakota this year, although Republican John Hoeven is one of the most popular governors in the country and could have made a serious challenge to Senator Kent Conrad had he chosen to run. North Dakota has voted Republican for every presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but all three members of the state's congressional delegation are Democrats.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

NC-08 (Republican-held)
Larry Kissell (D) 54 - Robin Hayes (R) 45
Larry Kissell is a great story: laid off from his textile position after 20 years on the job when the company moved overseas, he regained his footing as a high-school social studies teacher, and now he's running for Congress for all his former co-workers who weren't so lucky. For the anti-capitalists of the group, you can cast this race as the textile worker vs. the textile owner, but I prefer to focus on the fact that Robin Hayes brazenly flipped on CAFTA after saying he was "horizontally opposed" to it and claiming he had just voted yes by accident. Polls have shown this one close, and Kissell's activist base is really strong. I am feeling good here.

NC-11 (Republican-held)
Heath Shuler (D) 56 - Charles Taylor (R) 44
I am probably overconfident, but I still think you can call him Congressman Shuler from here on out. Charles Taylor is the richest person in North Carolina and funds his own campaigns, and he's like John Hostettler of Indiana in that he's been counted out in several elections before. Still, Shuler has a huge lead in some polls (bigger than I'm projecting) and has run an effective campaign even though Republicans cited him as an example of a candidate they would tear to shreds. When I heard that Shuler, a former star college quarterback who washed out in the NFL, was running for Congress, I thought, "oh great, yet another Republican athlete cashing in on his success to run for Congress." Then I found out he's a Democrat, and now I support him wholeheartedly. Also, there's a website called StopShuler.com pointing out that Shuler ruined the Redskins the last time he was in Washington; Shuler argues that maybe his return will break the Redskins' recent streak of bad luck. If he wins, Shuler will be one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Eliot Spitzer (D) 70 - John Faso (R) 27
Given that I worked for the New York Attorney General's office this summer, does this finally mean I've been on a winning campaign? I say no. Spitzer is probably my second favorite politician behind John Edwards.

Senate (Democratic-held)
Hillary Clinton (D) 63 - John Spencer (R) 34
I love how Senator Clinton polls better when her middle name is included, because somehow Hillary Rodham Clinton is a moderate and Hillary Clinton is a raving lunatic. The theory is that the massive landslides at the top of the ticket will help Democrats in close congressional and state senate races. Senator Clinton is currently my #3 choice for president in 2008 behind Edwards and Obama.

Comptroller (Democrat-held)
Alan Hevesi (D) 49 - Chris Callaghan (R) 48
Hevesi is corrupt and entitled, and Callaghan is a Republican. How am I to choose?

NY-03 (Republican-held)
Peter King (R) 57 - Dave Mejias (D) 41
This is one of those races that Democratic bloggers think will be closely contested, but I don't see where that comes from. During a debate this year, King said that Mejias is supported by "radical organizations" like the AARP and the NAACP. What an all-star!

NY-19 (Republican-held)
John Hall (D) 52 - Sue Kelly (R) 47
John Hall is the former lead singer of Orleans, who had hits back in the 70s with "Still The One" ("we're still having fun, and you're still the one") and "Dance With Me." He would be the only member of Congress who has appeared shirtless on a major-label album cover.

NY-20 (Republican-held)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 54 - John Sweeney (R) 46
Now, don't get me wrong, it's hard not to like John Sweeney: he showed up at some frat party uninvited earlier this year, hammered already, and started hitting on girls. While there are certainly more acceptable ways for congressmen to hit on college-aged girls (hint: they're interns, they work on the Hill and they're attracted to power), Sweeney really topped himself last month: the October Surprise in this race is that Sweeney's wife once put in a 911 call and reported that he was physically abusing her. Yep, that's what Congress gets you these days. Fortunately, Sweeney's opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, is capable, charming, and a partner at a NYC law firm at which I absolutely could not have received an offer. Polling here has fluctuated like mad, but the latest shows Gillibrand leading. She'll be a terrific member of Congress.

NY-24 (Open, Republican-held)
Mike Arcuri (D) 52 - Ray Meier (R) 47
Arcuri is the Oneida County DA; I don't know if Oneida is a major county or what but it seems like it's a party in some case I'm reading every other week. Apparently Arcuri is one of DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel's favorite candidates this cycle.

NY-25 (Republican-held)
Jim Walsh (R) 53 - Dan Maffei (D) 46
I don't think this race has gotten as much traction as a lot of the others in New York. New York has a reputation as having a very conservative upstate with liberal urban pockets that wind up tilting the balance (given that NYC makes up half the state's population) to make the state heavily Democratic in presidential contests. The state is trending even bluer, though, to the point where there are very few Republican congressional incumbents in New York who won't be seriously threatened every year until they retire.

NY-26 (Republican-held)
Tom Reynolds (R) 54 - Jack Davis (D) 46
This was going to be a fun pickup, since Tom Reynolds is the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee and it would be hilarious if he lost his own race. Reynolds was one of the three or four members of House leadership who covered up the Foley scandal, too, so it looked like we'd have a real shot to take him out, especially since the Democrat, Jack Davis, is a self-funding candidate who was already doing fairly well in the polls. Unfortunately - and this is true - Davis refuses to go out and actually campaign, doing nothing but run TV ads. It didn't work for Steve Forbes, and it won't work for you. Apparently Davis is an "eccentric billionaire." Maybe next time we can get one with some political sense?

NY-29 (Republican-held)
Eric Massa (D) 50 - Randy Kuhl (R) 49
Kuhl is a freshman incumbent and the only member of Congress who has pulled a shotgun on his (now surprisingly ex-)wife during a dinner party. Massa is a former Republican and 24-year Navy veteran who became a fan of Wesley Clark when he was one of Clark's aides when Clark was Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Massa became involved in Clark's presidential campaign, switched to the Democratic Party himself, and now he's running for Congress. Polls here go back and forth too but I'm pretty optimistic that Massa can pull off the upset.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

NM-01 (Republican-held)
Patricia Madrid (D) 53 - Heather Wilson (R) 47
Heather Wilson is one of those Anne Northup types who votes ultraconservative while maintaining a demure public persona, and even though Democrats always contest her seat they never wind up winning. This time, as with Northup, I think things will be different. Wilson is a graduate of the Air Force Academy and was a Rhodes Scholar, yet still cried on the House floor because of that Janet Jackson Super Bowl performance. Patty Madrid is the current state attorney general who was an early supporter of John Edwards' 2004 presidential run, and she's taken a fair lead in most polls in the last two months. I'm feeling good about this longtime target.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Democratic-held)
Bob Menendez (D) 53 - Tom Kean Jr. (R) 47
This is the seat that Jon Corzine won in 2000 and then abandoned to run for governor in 2005. He appointed Menendez to finish his term, and now Menendez is trying to win it for himself. I've been hearing that New Jersey Democratic politics is unbelievably corrupt, but Democratic blogs have pushed back that it's more of a gossip-heavy state than a pay-to-play one and that Menendez really is the best local-boy-makes-good story in Congress. New Jersey has a reputation as a Democratic state, but major elections recently have all wound up closer than everyone expected, with the Democrat pulling it out at the last minute: Corzine in 2000, Jim McGreevey for governor in 2001, Frank Lautenberg for Senate in 2002, the presidential election in 2004, Corzine in 2005, and hopefully now Menendez. Tom Kean Jr. is the son of a very popular former governor and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission; the Keans have been called the Bush family of New Jersey for their hereditary politics and hypercompetitive, elitist personalities. This race has trended Democratic over the past week.

NJ-07 (Republican-held)
Mike Ferguson (R) 56 - Linda Stender (D) 44
Stender was a popular candidate among a lot of progressive bloggers early in the cycle but she seems not to have manifested too serious a threat here.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
John Lynch (D) 69 - Jim Coburn (R) 28
It's worth noting that in supposedly Republican New Hampshire, Democratic presidential candidates have carried this state three of the last four elections (losing only when Ralph Nader's total far exceeded Bush's margin over Al Gore) and Democrats have won four of the last five gubernatorial elections (naturally, losing only when I was working on the campaign). The story is pretty funny: Republican Craig Benson won in 2002, claiming that he would bring business sense and "a clean sheet of paper" to New Hampshire state government even though his business had actually peaked in 1996 and had since hemorrhaged 90% of its jobs. (It's now gone.) No elected Democrat could seriously challenge Benson's $600 million warchest in 2004, so the Democrats lucked out with John Lynch, a former state Democratic Party executive director who had become a businessman himself, specializing in reviving failing businesses. He beat Benson in a close race by running on bipartisanship, a promise he kept while in office, and no serious Republican challenger ran against him. This closely parallels the tenure of Jeanne Shaheen, who became governor in 1996 and also won her first reelection in a landslide. She won again in 2000 before losing a 2002 Senate run against John Sununu (who I hope she beats in a rematch in 2008).

NH-01 (Republican-held)
Jeb Bradley (R) 54 - Carol Shea-Porter (D) 45
Shea-Porter is an alum of the Wesley Clark operation in New Hampshire who followed Jeb Bradley to all his town hall meetings throughout the district in 2005 and then decided to challenge him herself. Relying on a devoted band of followers and little else, she upset the state House Democratic Leader in the primary. Unfortunately, that accomplishment is mitigated by the nature of the primary, which besides being more partisan also had minimal turnout, making it easier for an activist base to win. A general election win takes a lot more.

NH-02 (Republican-held)
Paul Hodes (D) 52 - Charlie Bass (R) 47
Bass is one of those candidates who supposedly always has a tough challenger and yet wins by an increasing margin every year. That luck will run out this year in his rematch against Paul Hodes, who claims now that his 2004 run was done entirely so that John Kerry would have someone else helping the Democratic ticket in the 2nd district. New Hampshire is trending Democratic to the point where the 2nd (generally the western half of the state) may actually lean that way, and Hodes is a stronger candidate this time. For the record, I was surprised when Bass said that Bernie Sanders supporters in Vermont should all move back to the Bronx and drive taxis; I don't agree with his politics but, unlike a lot of Republicans, I never thought he was that kind of asshole that would openly resort to that kind of state-level xenophobia. (Amusingly, he started the remark by saying that he hadn't been drinking.)

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Dina Titus (D) 54 - Jim Gibbons (R) 45
This race was going to wind up Republican by 8-10 points until it turned out that Jim Gibbons assaulted a cocktail waitress (last month!) and tried to cover it up. That hurt his campaign. Incidentally, Nevada has been the fastest-growing state in the union for about 18 years in a row, and yet they still only have three congressional districts. Also, the revision to the Democratic primary schedule puts a caucus in Nevada between Iowa and New Hampshire, making this state (and the prominent Democrats therein) a major player for 2008. Politically the state is dominated by the UNITE-HERE union that supported John Edwards last time. (Woo!)

Senate (Republican-held)
John Ensign (R) 58 - Jack Carter (D) 41
I was hoping this seat would become more competitive. Jack Carter is indeed the son of our 39th president.

NV-02 (Open, Republican-held)
Dean Heller (R) 53 - Jill Derby (D) 47
First off, take a look at the size of this district. Yikes! Anyway, now that I look at it, Jim Gibbons may be Republican congressman #4 to lose the party both the governor's office and his own seat in Congress. Derby is apparently a really terrific candidate, but this is a pretty conservative district. In fact, apparently Nevada Republicans are focusing their volunteers on NV-03, figuring that even if they lose this district to Derby, they'll be able to take it back in 2008.

NV-03 (Republican-held)
Jon Porter (R) 52 - Tessa Hafen (D) 47
This race is mostly competitive because Tessa Hafen has a lot of support in Washington: before running for Congress, she was press secretary for Senate Minority Leader (and Nevada's senior senator) Harry Reid. So Reid clearly has a personal interest in winning this one in a way he doesn't for the Senate race (where he has a very positive working relationship with incumbent Republican John Ensign). I still think Hafen falls short.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Democratic-held)
Ben Nelson (D) 62 - Pete Ricketts (R) 27
This one was a comedy of errors for Team Republican. Nelson is popular in Nebraska, but he's still a Democrat in a very conservative state. His three biggest threats for reelection were from Governor Mike Johanns, who was appointed Secretary of Agriculture in early 2005; Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman, who ascended to the governor's office and ran for governor in his own right; and legendary Nebraska football coach and current congressman Tom Osborne, who decided to run for governor and lost in the primary. Since none of them ran, the job fell upon Ameritrade heir Pete Ricketts, who self-funded the race but didn't seem to be up to par as a campaigner. The Nelson campaign has stayed aggressive, and since this was considered a potentially close race early in the cycle, the DSCC, the Nelson campaign and the Nebraska Democratic Party have an effective field program in place that will hopefully pay off for down-ticket races. Finally, I want to point out the difference between Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson: they're both conservative, but Ben Nelson never dimes out the Democratic Party. He never publicly criticizes Democrats for some policy position that will lead them down the road to electoral ruin. Even if he privately believed it (and I have no idea one way or the other) he never enables Republican mischaracterizations by calling Democrats tax-hikers or weak on terror. Ben Nelson says he's an independent voice who will side with the president when he's right, and won't when he's wrong. That's the kind of independent I like.

NE-01 (Republican-held)
Jeff Fortenberry (R) 55 - Maxine Moul (D) 44
There have been some favorable polls here recently, but I'm not hearing enough good things to convince me she's pulling this out. Moul is a former lieutenant governor, so theoretically she has some experience and connections. I'm not sure if she's a weak candidate or if she'll be a more serious threat in 2008.

NE-03 (Open, Republican-held)
Scott Kleeb (D) 51 - Adrian Smith (R) 47
This is another great race where no one thought Democrats had a real shot at the beginning of the cycle. Scott Kleeb is a fourth-generation Nebraska rancher with a graduate degree in international relations from Yale. I found his commercials to be kind of dull, but they seem to be popular in the district. His opponent, Adrian Smith, is almost entirely funded by the economically ultraconservative Club for Growth, which just so happens to oppose the farm subsidies that's a primary economic driver in Nebraska's 3rd district, the western two-thirds of the state. So Kleeb has been able to hit Smith pretty hard, and Kleeb internal polling showed him up eight on October 30th. With the Ben Nelson turnout operation and the Nebraska Democratic Party's new 93-county strategy helping them out, I think Kleeb's going to pull off the shocker here.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Republican-held)
Jon Tester (D) 51 - Conrad Burns (R) 48
This one is stressful for me personally. I've been a fan of Tester since early 2005 when I discovered he's a rancher and Montana Senate President who looks like a gym teacher, loves the blogs, and toured the state in a big rig with "You're behind the right guy" written on the back. He upset a better-funded, DC-supported opponent in the primary, and he took a big lead over corrupt and broadly offensive incumbent Senator Conrad Burns in the general election. Unfortunately, Burns has pretty much tied the race by pointing out that Tester wants nothing more in life than to raise the tax rate to 100 percent. If Tester loses, after all he's been through, I will be very, very disappointed.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Republican-held)
Claire McCaskill (D) 51 - Jim Talent (R) 49
The Democrats pulled a major coup by recruiting McCaskill, who lost the governor's race in 2004 and, given the unpopularity of the Republican who won, she would probably win the 2008 rematch she was rumored to covet. Having been convinced to run for Senate, she has put in a skilled and enthusiastic run. From the day she announced, almost every poll has shown this race to be within three points or less, and it will be decided by the GOTV efforts going on while I spend my time writing a campaign analysis. I think Democratic enthusiasm will be higher, plus there will be stem-cell and minimum-wage initiatives on the ballot that may or may not turn out more Democrats but may remind them what they don't like about Republicans.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There are no exciting races in Mississippi this year. Did you know Mississippi is the country's second-most Democratic state in terms of voter registration?

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Mike Hatch (D) 52 - Tim Pawlenty (R) 47
I was unclear in recent years whether Tim Pawlenty was readying himself for a 2008 presidential run or not, which probably means that he was hoping to be picked as VP. While he doesn't have a ton of scandal to his name, the anti-Republican national mood, combined with a surprisingly lackluster Republican Senate effort, has him in more serious trouble than even my prediction suggests. Mike Hatch is the AG and has been prepping a higher run for a long time; it looks like he's made the most of it.

Senate (Open, Democratic-held)
Amy Klobuchar (D) 60 - Mark Kennedy (R) 39
This race has been weird since the start. Incumbent Mark Dayton declined to run for a second term: his poll numbers looked poor, he didn't seem to enjoy the Senate, and while he could afford to self-fund his 2000 campaign, he couldn't do it again. This race is a rare example of a retirement helping the party, even if I was surprised that Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County Attorney, had what it took for a Senate run. I mean, a county DA? Amusingly enough, the GOP ran nothing but a resume in Mark Kennedy, one of those fresh-faced, moderate-looking but conservative-voting guys they keep throwing out there who keep winning. Despite being the GOP's prize recruit early in the cycle, his campaign never got off the ground. Klobuchar succeeded in driving out most of her primary opponents even before primary day, and her lead against Kennedy grew ever since. She's a terrific campaigner, an appealing person, and a solid Democrat. She has very effectively used her prosecutorial experience to portray herself as a fighter. I'm a fan.

MN-01 (Republican-held)
Gil Gutknecht (R) 51 - Tim Walz (D) 48
I'm sorry to predict the race this way. Gutknecht has consistently underperformed presidential vote totals in his district, and Tim Walz is one of my favorite Democratic recruits this cycle. He's both a high-school teacher and a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, but I don't think he's got this one this time out. Hopefully he'll stick with us for 2008.

MN-02 (Republican-held)
John Kline (R) 55 - Colleen Rowley (D) 44
It's not often that parties can recruit a Time Person of the Year to run for Congress, but we have one of the honorees from that Whistleblower year on our side this time. Unfortunately, she's pretty liberal and running in a conservative district, so I'm not sure she can keep it close.

MN-06 (Open, Republican-held)
Michele Bachmann (R) 50 - Patty Wetterling (D) 49
This is Patty Wetterling's second run for this seat, having kept Mark Kennedy's 2004 House reelection campaign close until the end. When Kennedy decided to run for Senate, she did the same. That was clearly a mistake, since Kennedy's House retirement made his seat much more competitive, but Wetterling eventually wised up and dropped out to run for the House again. Polls alternated between showing leads for her or for her opponent, theocrat state senator Michele Bachmann. Wetterling was one of the only candidates to run ads against Mark Foley; Wetterling's son was abducted at gunpoint by a masked man who forced the son and his friends to state their ages and then he kidnapped her son, the youngest. The son has not been heard from since, and Wetterling and her husband have been active nationally in child-abduction issues. She wouldn't take any crap about Foley.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Jennifer Granholm (D) 53 - Dick DeVos (R) 46
When Granholm won in 2002, she was considered the Democratic rationale for repealing the native-born requirement for the presidency: polished as a campaigner, a skilled leader, and governor of a swing state, she looked like everything Democrats would want in a president, except she was born in Canada and thus ineligible. Since then, economic turmoil in Michigan, notably hemorrhages at the Detroit auto makers, has put her reelection in doubt; at one point making her the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent of anyone on this list. Since then, however, she's mounted a comeback, blaming Bush instead of herself for the area's economic concerns and accusing her opponent, businessman Dick DeVos, of outsourcing Michigan jobs. She took a strategic risk in not running ads even when she fell 6-8 points behind DeVos in early summer, but her decision to save her money for the fall seems to have paid off.

Senate (Democratic-held)
Debbie Stabenow (D) 52 - Michael Bouchard (R) 47
Stabenow dodged a bullet when Secretary of State Candice Miller decided not to challenge her, but she still faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. I'm not sure what Bouchard's qualifications for high office are, but he ran suburban-humorous ads involving his family and seems a fairly likable guy, while Stabenow is still not well known as a leader in Washington. I think this one will be closer than many predict, but Stabenow does know how to campaign, having taken out a GOP incumbent in 2000, and she'll pull this one out.

MI-11 (Republican-held)
Thaddeus McCotter (R) 60 - Tony Trupiano (D) 40
I know virtually nothing about this race, but some people think it's competitive. I haven't seen it.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Deval Patrick (D) 58 - Kerry Healey (R) 29 - Christy Mihos (I) 11
Republicans have had the governor's office in Massachusetts since Michael Dukakis left in 1990, but their run ends this time. Traditionally, Republicans have won this office by portraying themselves as moderates who will check the heavily Democratic, machine-driven state legislature. Unfortunately for them, Mitt Romney screwed that up by deciding he wanted to run for president, openly disparaging Massachusetts on the pre-campaign circuit and vetoing the massively popular morning-after pill. The other reason this election is so lopsided is that Deval Patrick is using the Republican playbook against them: as a former national officeholder (he was the chief deputy to the U.S. Attorney General for civil rights in the Clinton years) and his business background to portray himself as a pragmatic type who won't buy into the sausage-and-legislation atmosphere in the Massachusetts state house. Assuming Ken Blackwell loses in Ohio, Patrick will become the second African-American governor in the last half-century, probably longer.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Robert Erlich (R) 51 - Martin O'Malley (D) 49
This is a tough one to call: O'Malley had a big lead for a long time, but Erlich successfully used his financial advantage to narrow the gap, criticizing O'Malley's crime record as mayor of Baltimore. Many African-Americans will be voting Republican for Senate, but will they vote for a Republican for governor? I really hope the Democratic lean of the state in this Democratic year pays off for O'Malley, but I no longer believe that will happen.

Senate (Open, Democratic-held)
Ben Cardin (D) 52 - Michael Steele (R) 47
This one is much closer than it should be. I'm not a huge fan of Michael Steele, but he's charming. He ran a pretty good ad saying that Democrats were going to attack him so much they'd even say he hates puppies even though he actually loves puppies. (He even held up a puppy on camera.) The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee responded with an equally smooth ad saying, "It's great that Michael Steele loves puppies. You know who else Michael Steele loves? George W. Bush." That said, this campaign isn't all fun and games, and I think it's the Republicans' best chance for a Senate pickup. Steele is African-American, and a lot of normally Democratic African-Americans in Maryland are upset that the Democratic Party hasn't paid them enough attention and run enough African-American candidates. It doesn't help that an African-American candidate lost the Democratic primary. So while Maryland is a Democratic state, it won't be as easy for Cardin as we would have hoped. I still think he pulls it out.

MD-01 (Republican-held)
Roscoe Bartlett (R) 56 - Andrew Duck (D) 42
Wishful thinking, at least this year. Duck has a nice resume (he's been a leader in the group of Iraq vets running for Congress as Democrats) and I think he'll be back.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
John Baldacci (D) 39 - Chandler Woodcock (R) 35 - Barbara Merrill (I) 16 - Pat LeMarche (G) 10
This is considered Republicans' best pickup opportunity for a governor's race at this point, though I suspect Baldacci is pulling away. By the way, Maine is not as Democratic as the rest of New England, and its electoral votes are apportioned by congressional district (there are two in the state; Nebraska does the same thing), so if a Republican presidential candidate ever carries a Maine congressional district, s/he'd pick up an electoral vote. Also, I was listening to John Linnell's "Maine" the other day, and I think it's the best track from his State Songs album. I have no idea about the dynamics of the race, and I only found out there were other candidates threatening double-digit support on Sunday. Finally, sorry about the name, Chandler Woodcock.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

LA-02 (Democratic-held)
William Jefferson (D) 42 - Everyone else 48
Louisiana has an interesting system without conventional primaries: everyone runs against each other on Election Day and if no one gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two have a runoff a month later. This leads to a lot of post-election campaigns where everyone from around the country goes down to Louisiana for some epic battle. I'm not sure if that will happen this year, but Bill Jefferson is way more corrupt than is acceptable for a party running on change (I mean, who hasn't hidden $90,000 in the freezer), and regardless of what he wants to do to help the New Orleans recovery, I don't think he's cracking 50. I still say he wins the runoff.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

KY-02 (Republican-held)
Ron Lewis (R) 53 - Mike Weaver (D) 46
I would love to see Weaver win here, but I don't see it happening. Lewis, while certainly a knee-jerk conservative, hasn't been directly tied to any of the BS coming out of Washington these days. Col. Mike Weaver has a strong resume and has made inroads in the district thanks to his opposition to the Iraq War, but I fear his campaign inexperience and the Republican tilt of the district make the hill too steep to climb this time around.

KY-03 (Republican-held)
John Yarmuth (D) 52 - Anne Northup (R) 47
OK, I'm a little biased here because I was press secretary for the last guy who ran against Northup, and also I hate her guts. She was first elected to this Louisville district in 1996, and she's held off tough incumbents ever since. Her strongest victory, by far, was against Tony Miller in 2004 (yes, I bear some responsibility here), scaring off several potential challengers for 2006. John Yarmuth, founder and columnist for Louisville's alt-weekly LEO, was a vigorous supporter of ours last time around, and evidently thinking he could do a better job, decided to go out front as the candidate this time. And he was right! Yarmuth is the first candidate to have held significant leads over Northup in multiple polls (especially this close to the election), he has the Louisville Democratic base energized, and he has done a marvelous job of staying strong against Northup's relentless attacks. I have to hand it to Northup; besides being one of the most prolific fundraisers in Congress, she has a remarkable talent for making even the dumbest of campaign attacks come across as both important and lethal, while making seemingly contradictory attacks from year to year that Democrats can never seem to pin down. Yarmuth has stayed tough despite the attacks ("I'll stand by my columns if she'll stand by her votes"), and although some observers say Yarmuth would be dead in the water in any other kind of political environment, I think here the candidate deserves the credit. One final note: Louisville is often considered a Democratic-leaning district. It's true that voter registration tilts that way, but that's also true of Mississippi. Louisville is actually a fairly accurate microcosm of the country's voting habits, with the wealthy Republican East End, the liberal Democratic downtown, the heavily African-American West Louisville, and the socially conservative but recently Democratic South End. The keys here are tamping down Republican support in West Louisville (where Northup has become very popular for a Republican, frankly by buying off several local church leaders) and winning back the economically liberal South End. Yarmuth's campaign claims they've identified 14 kinds of Democrat, and if they're not just blowing smoke here they might really be onto something. I like John Yarmuth a lot as a person and as a candidate, and if I could choose one Democratic pickup this year, it would probably be here.

KY-04 (Republican-held)
Geoff Davis (R) 52 - Ken Lucas (D) 48
Ken Lucas is a conservative Democrat who held this conservative seat for three terms after Jim Bunning left to run for Senate. Honoring his term-limits pledge, he stepped down in 2004 as Geoff Davis, his 2002 opponent, beat George Clooney's dad (seriously) to put this seat in Republican hands. Lucas apparently thinks Davis is either a moron, a terrible congressman, or both, because he's coming out of retirement to take him on. Early polls showed Lucas with a big lead that subsequently narrowed, and the most recent polling suggests Davis is starting to pull away. This would be a tough loss.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Kathleen Sebelius (D) 55 - Jim Barnett (R) 45
This race is widely expected to be a landslide, but I think it will be closer due to Kansas' sharp Republican tilt. Sebelius has done a remarkable job of exploiting the acrimonious disputes between Kansas' moderate business-oriented Republicans and the Christian conservatives who make up most of the party base. In 2002 Sebelius rode Republican intraparty dissent into the state house, and since then she has convinced several prominent moderate Republicans to switch parties and run as Democrats. That track record has led Markos Moulitsas of DailyKos to suggest that she should be a leading candidate for vice president in 2008.

KS-02 (Republican-held)
Nancy Boyda (D) 50 - Jim Ryun (R) 49
I am rating this as a Democratic pickup mostly because I so desperately want to believe, though several polls bear me out. This race is curious: it is certainly a Republican district, represented by former world-record mile runner and Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year Jim Ryun, the only politician I know of who has apparently spoken in tongues at a campaign rally. Nancy Boyda made a semi-competitive challenge against Ryun in 2004, but until recently I hadn't heard of anyone who thought this race was a serious pickup opportunity this year. Then, all of a sudden, the DCCC dropped a ton of money in the district, claiming they had been intending to compete here all along and wanted to catch the Republicans off-guard. I'm not sure I believe that (they said the same thing, even less credibly, in the 2005 Paul Hackett special election in Ohio's 2nd) but I am glad they're competing here. A win here would give Democrats a majority in Kansas' House delegation.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Democratic-held)
Chet Culver (D) 52 - Jim Nussle (R) 47
Some prominent Democratic bloggers believe that viable presidential candidates should have built up significant Democratic operations in their home states before running for national office, with one major example being that outgoing Iowa governor Tom Vilsack should be able to guarantee that Chet Culver will succeed him. I don't think that's fair - there's a lot more to campaigning than the health of the party establishment - but it looks like Culver will still pull this one out. Labeled a lackluster candidate at the start of the cycle, Culver's 2006 performance has impressed many observers and Nussle, a sitting congressman, has problems of his own after voting for all that garbage proposed by the Republican House. Nussle is the third Republican congressman who might lose both the governor's race and the seat he already holds.

IA-01 (Open, Republican-held)
Bruce Braley (D) 53 - Mike Whalen (R) 46
This is Nussle's seat, and a few months ago it was considered a top Democratic pickup opportunity. The likelihood of the seat flipping hasn't changed since then so much as other seats have become more likely to turn. Still, it's not a guaranteed Democratic victory. That said, the district leans Democratic, and without an existing Republican incumbent it's a lot easier to convince voters to switch.

IA-02 (Republican-held)
Jim Leach (R) 55 - David Loebsack (D) 43
A lot of people are claiming Loebsack has a serious shot here, but I haven't seen it.

IA-03 (Democratic-held)
Leonard Boswell (D) 54 - Jeff Lamberti (R) 46
Until the Georgia races turned sour, this was considered the best chance of a Republican pickup in the country due to Boswell's health concerns in 2005. Given that Boswell has apparently made a full-enough-for-political-work recovery, that argument has lessened, but Lamberti is a strong candidate and the current Republican leader in the Iowa Senate. Still, Boswell has been around for a while, so I suspect other races will be closer.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 11:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

IN-02 (Republican-held)
Joe Donnelly (D) 53 - Chris Chocola (R) 47
Chris Chocola, affectionately called "The Count" for breakfast-cereal reasons, won a highly competitive open-seat contest in 2002. He won reelection more easily in 2004, but then-and-current challenger Joe Donnelly is a classic example of a candidate who learned from mistakes in his first run to become a stellar candidate his next time out. Because of the 2004 outcome, this race wasn't on most radar screens for most of the 2006 cycle, but now some pundits believe Donnelly has the best chance of winning of any Democratic candidate in Indiana. As we see below, that's saying quite a bit.

IN-03 (Republican-held)
Mark Souder (R) 54 - Tim Hayhurst (D) 44
This race has tightened over the last few weeks, but I suspect it happened too late for Hayhurst to get significant traction. Maybe in 2008.

IN-07 (Democratic-held)
Julia Carson (D) 52 - Eric Dickerson (R) 48
Dickerson, who has never held the onetime NFL single-season rushing record holder, has somehow turned this into a close race despite receiving virtually no attention outside the district. Apparently Carson is sick and has run a lethargic campaign, and now some polls actually show her behind. I hope and assume Democrats have figured out how to hold this one, but this sounds like something that needs to be resolved for 2008.

IN-08 (Republican-held)
Brad Ellsworth (D) 53 - John Hostettler (R) 46
This is an interesting race. In the aftermath of a series of tornadoes that ravaged the district in 2005, I read a profile of Brad Ellsworth, a local county sheriff who had emerged as a resolute and confident leader when the district badly needed one. The profile said that Ellsworth was exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would love to recruit for 2006, if only Ellsworth were both a Democrat and up for running. The article reached a thrilling conclusion when I discovered, actually, Ellsworth was not only a Democrat but already running for Congress. John Hostettler is an all-star (he was arrested in 2004 for carrying a gun onto a plane and he honestly believes the Democrats' raison d'etre is to fight Christianity) but he has always run curious campaigns: devoid of consultants or fundraising, he somehow uses his legions of supporters for a massive GOTV effort that always pulls him over the top against challengers who everyone assumes have already won. Conventional wisdom holds that this is the year Hostettler is finally going down; I don't know how the polls look compared to earlier cycles but some of them show Ellsworth with pretty substantial leads.

IN-09 (Republican-held)
Baron Hill (D) 50 - Mike Sodrel (R) 49
I saw this race up close during my 2004 tenure across the river in Louisville. Baron Hill is the former three-term congressman here, but after holding off Sodrel in 2002, he lost to Sodrel in 2004 in the closest congressional election in the country. Both campaigns have been well run, but Baron is a stellar campaigner in a Democratic year. The troubles of Mitch Daniels, Indiana's unpopular Republican governor, can't help matters much either. This will still be a close race, but hopefully Baron Hill will win the rubber match.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 11:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Democratic-held)
Rod Blagojevich (D) 54 - Judy Baar Topinka (R) 43
If I had to put money on it, and there were some conclusive way of finding out, I'd say Blagojevich is probably corrupt. (I know, in Chicago politics?) Still, the Illinois Republican Party has been dysfunctional for years (remember when they chose Alan Keyes to run for Senate over someone who actually lived in Illinois?) and since no top-tier candidates chose to run, it fell upon state treasurer and GOP party chair Judy Baar Topinka not to get any traction running against Blagojevich. It's funny to think that after Blagojevich was first elected governoron in 2002, after serving one term in Congress, he openly discussed the possibility of running for president in 2008. You could call that less likely now that he's hardly throwing off Topinka in this heavily Democratic state.

IL-06 (Open, Republican-held)
Tammy Duckworth (D) 49 - Peter Roskam (R) 47
This is one of the more interesting races this year. The seat opened up when Henry Hyde decided to retire after an illustrious career of running the House impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 despite having had an affair himself. The Republican nominee was state senator Peter Roskam by acclimation, but Democrats had a more contentious primary between Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost both her legs in the war, and netroots-supported Christine Cegelis, who ran against Hyde in 2004. DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel hails from the bordering district and has made winning this race a priority, and he backed Duckworth in the primary. This not only raised the ire of Cegelis-supporting activists in the district, but it almost backfired completely when the woefully underfunded Cegelis almost won the primary. Local Democrats have mostly patched things up, but controversy remains: the DCCC just dropped a staggering three million dollars into the district which, win or lose, could have gone to better use elsewhere. So while my prediction may be wishful thinking, Duckworth really better pull this one out. (Also, the Republicans have accused Duckworth of being cut-and-run. Remember how when they accused another multiple amputee, Max Cleland, of being unpatriotic, it was news?)

IL-08 (Democratic-held)
Melissa Bean (D) 51 - David McSweeney (R) 48
Hey, look, another Republican pickup opportunity! Melissa Bean won in 2004 by beating 35-year incumbent Phil Crane, arguing that he took too many taxpayer-funded junkets and had ignored this Republican-leaning district. Crane, indeed, turned out to be a weak campaigner, and Bean pulled it out. She's had a hard time staying moderate in this conservative district without alienating the progressive base; she lost a lot of union support by voting for the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Still, she's raised a ton of money, which in this expensive Chicago-area district may be enough to send her back for another term. I think if she wins this time she'll be in there for a while.

IL-10 (Republican-held)
Mark Kirk (R) 52 - Dan Seals (D) 47
Dan Seals has often been compared to Barack Obama, another African-American Illinois Democrat whose nonthreatening mainstream appeal is fueling his rise to high office. It's a lot to ask of the guy, since Seals is still an underdog congressional challenger and Obama has won the hearts of Democrats throughout the country, but eventually it may prove pretty accurate. Seals' campaign has only caught national attention recently, but he has been invigorating activists in this suburban Illinois district for months now. I suspect he'll get the win in 2008.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 10:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Jerry Brady (D) 49 - Butch Otter (R) 47
I am predicting another upset with this one. Otter is the second Republican congressman with the opportunity to cost his party the governor's office as well as his congressional seat, and Otter has the special privilege of doing so in one of the most Republican states in the union. This election should not have been competitive, but apparently Otter assumed he had this won and barely campaigned for most of the year. I should probably predict this race to go the other way, but Brady has been energetic and I don't think Otter will get his ducks in a row in time.

ID-01 (Open, Republican-held)
Bill Sali (R) 47 - Larry Grant (D) 43
This race is one of the jewels of the much-maligned 50-state strategy that pretty much everyone in DC has finally conceded makes a ton of sense. Here's the story: Howard Dean wants Democrats to compete on the presidential level in all 50 states, figuring that we're not going to win in these rock-ribbed Republican states in the near future, but we have to start trying sometime. This is what he ran on when he ran for DNC chair, and it's what he's done. Democratic bloggers picked up on the theme in early 2005 and argued that Democrats should attempt to run serious candidates in every Republican congressional district in the country, on the philosophy that a few will become competitive in 2006 and most of them will become pickup opportunities years down the line. As it turns out, most of the best chances for Democratic pickups are coming in districts that were not considered threats at the beginning of the cycle and likely would not have received DC attention or funding were it not for the 50-state strategy. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, to its credit, was one of the first DC organizations to realize the value of this strategy, and after some acrimony early in the cycle, jumped fully on board and now supports something like 70 challenges to Republican-held districts. What's been most amazing, though, is that many of these serious challenges have come in districts no one thought would become competitive even in the near future, such as here in Idaho's first district. The Republican nominee, Bill Sali, is a state representative who the Republican state House speaker said "That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn't have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper." (Follow this link for quotes that are even worse; look for the one on breast cancer.) The Democrat, Larry Grant, is a really good guy who's honest, hard-working, and exactly what you want in a congressman. Unfortunately, the dynamics of the district and the attack ads against Grant probably put this one out of reach. Maybe a rematch will do it?

Posted by Terry McMahon at 7:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I love Hawaii! Hawaii, however, does not love close political contests, at least not this November. This is another Democratic-leaning state that has inexplicably failed to come up with a serious threat to a Republican incumbent governor. Especially given that current governor is the first Republican governor in Hawaii in the past 40 years, I'm not sure what held back Team Democrat here.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 7:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Sonny Perdue (R) 55 - Mark Taylor (D) 43
It's hard to overstate how far Georgia Democrats have fallen in the last four years. When Perdue won this office in 2002, beating Democratic incumbent and then-potential presidential candidate Roy Barnes, it was the political shocker of the year. Even afterward, Perdue's win was largely credited to Saxby Chambliss' ill-gotten Senate victory and a voter referendum on the state flag that turned out conservative votes. Since then, Democrats in the state legislature have been party-switching left and right - or I guess just right - and Democrats barely put up a fight in 2004 to contest the Senate seat given up by enormous traitor Zell Miller. Taylor is the lieutenant governor, but it doesn't look like he's found any traction here. I just hope Democrats can mount up enough for Max Cleland (or, as always, any other competent Democrat) to take out Chambliss in 2008.

GA-08 (Democratic-held)
Jim Marshall (D) 51 - Mac Collins (R) 48
Georgia marks the GOP's best chances at House pickups this year, mainly due to mid-decade redistricting exactly like Texas Republicans did in 2003. This time the results will be less dramatic, but there are still two endangered seats. Collins is a former congressman who lost a Senate primary in 2004 and now attempts a comeback. This one will be tough, but Marshall is well-established even in his reshaped district.

GA-12 (Democratic-held)
John Barrow (D) 52 - Max Burns (R) 47
Another seat thrown into doubt because of mid-decade redistricting, Barrow is also running against a former congressman, here opposing the guy he beat in 2004. Actually, Burns was considered an overmatched candidate before, supposedly having won the seat in 2002 only because the Democratic candidate was a poor choice by local machine politicians. I'm not sure what makes Burns such a better candidate this time, but again, the district is less favorable to Barrow than it was last time. I think Barrow pulls this one out.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 6:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Charlie Crist (R) 52 - Jim Davis (D) 47
I really couldn't tell you what happened here. Crist never seemed to me to be that appealing a candidate: he revealed earlier this year that he had no idea what expressio unius was right as I was learning it myself my first year at law school, he's running in an unfavorable political climate, and I'm not sure why a semi-closeted Republican isn't facing more of a backlash when he's running in the same state the same year as Mark Foley. Crist had an enormous fundraising advantage over Davis, which some claim has made the difference, but the inoculation of this race from the troubles of national politics (I mean, come on, they're succeeding Jeb Bush here) really troubles me for what it says about the viability of Democrats in Florida politics. That all said, Davis has been closing the gap lately, so he may have a shot yet.

Senate (Democratic-held)
Bill Nelson (D) 61 - Katherine Harris (R) 37
I really, really hope this isn't the end of Katherine Harris's political career, because it turns out she's the best source of comic relief you can find in politics. I mean, her campaign has had it all: rank corruption, massive and repeated staff resignations, religious fanaticism, and inappropriately timed sexual suggestiveness. My favorite anecdote is the time her staffers got so frustrated at her ripping apart everything they wrote for her that they submitted a speech to her that she called "terrible." The speech, of course, was one that Harris had written herself months earlier. Much as I wish Katherine Harris 2000 had never existed, Katherine Harris 2006 has saved the Democrats a potentially vulnerable Senate seat. So we're a millionth of the way to being even!

FL-09 (Open, Republican-held)
Gus Bilirakis (R) 54 - Phyllis Busansky (D) 45
This race is apparently competitive, though I don't know much about it. That said, this seat is currently held by Republican Mike Bilirakis, and it's always charming when a son succeeds his father in Congress, so I hope we can pull this one out.

FL-13 (Open, Republican-held)
Christine Jennings (D) 52 - Vern Buchanan (R) 47
One of the underreported stories of the Katherine Harris saga is that she was never that popular to begin with, and both her elections to Congress have been closer than they should have been. Jennings lost in the primary last time, but she's a better candidate this time out and Democrats have a better chance of taking this seat now that Harris has left it open. Buchanan is your typical successful businessman who hates taxes and thinks he can do politics better than the people already doing it. We'll see if he's right or if he's another Morry Taylor.

FL-16 (Open, Republican-held)
Tim Mahoney (D) 52 - Joe Negron (R) 46
Yep, it's the race to win the protein-stained seat most recently held by Mark Foley. It looked like the Republican Party was dead in the water here, but this race has become competitive again now that the scandal has faded and the Republicans will have some form of polling-place notification that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. I actually like Mahoney to begin with, and hopefully his campaign has been strong enough to pull this one out. Here's my strategic question: do you attack Negron? Either you let him into Election Day as a guy without any negatives, or you risk alerting Foley-alienated Republican voters that they're not actually voting for Foley. It's a tough call.

FL-22 (Republican-held)
Ron Klein (D) 50 - Clay Shaw (R) 49
Klein has been the typical Democratic candidate the old-school way of doing things: raise a ton of money and convince DC operatives that you can win the race. He hasn't hit up the blogosphere to impress national Democratic activists, and I also don't know how energized activists in the district are for his campaign. That said, he does have a ton of money, and it's not hard to imagine him pulling this one out. Shaw has been pretty battle-tested over his two decades or so in Congress, and despite catching a break in 2004 when his credible opponent pulled out due to sickness, he seems to be pretty on-the-ball this time. Still, the race will be close. I changed this pick at the last minute.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 6:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

DE-AL (Republican-held)
Mike Castle (R) 55 - Dennis Spivack (D) 44
This race is not competitive; Mike Castle is a Delaware institution who's been in Congress for 14 years and was governor before that. That said, Castle had an ostensibly minor stroke in September and hasn't held any public events since. Why this isn't a bigger issue is beyond me, but I do think Spivack (or some other Democrat) will be a serious contender in this Democratic-leaning state in 2008, regardless of whether Castle runs again. (AL stands for At Large, proof that Delaware has fewer people than Rhode Island.)

Posted by Terry McMahon at 5:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Democratic-held)
Joe Lieberman (CfL) 47 - Ned Lamont (D) 42 - Alan Schlesinger (R) 11
And this is the way the Connecticut Senate race ends, not with a bang but a whimper. Ugh. I think Chris Cillizza's awesome column The Fix had it right when he said that Lieberman's primary campaign was one of the worst in the country and his general-election campaign one of the best. The Lamont campaign had no post-primary plan, and that cost them as it gave Lieberman the political cover to stay in the race at all, as well as the opportunity to define himself as a statesman above trifling party concerns. It's tough to say if Lamont could have successfully tarred him as a sore loser only out for his own gain, or if Lieberman would have done this well regardless on account of the more moderate nature of the Connecticut general electorate. Towards the end of the campaign, the Lamont campaign had been hoping that Republican gadfly candidate Alan Schlesinger would peel Republican support away from Lieberman or that Lieberman's $387,000 petty-cash account (FEC rules say petty cash can't be more than a couple thousand or so) would build into a scandal. I doubt it on Schlesinger's part, and the fact that Lieberman is making substantial expenses that he's not reporting by labeling it "petty cash" doesn't seem to be resonating. Supposedly Lamont has a far superior turnout program, but even so, it looks like the Lamont train ends here. Finally, on a personal note, I can't cover this race without pointing out that putative Democrat Lieberman will only win this race by turning out Republican voters, seriously jeopardizing Democratic chances of picking up the three seriously contested House seats I describe below. If you ask me, Lieberman's refusal to say whether he prefers a Democratic or Republican House of Representatives, after all we've been through in the last six years that ostensibly led him to run for president, is final proof that he cares only about himself. I hope he leaves American politics sooner than later.

CT-02 (Republican-held)
Rob Simmons (R) 51 - Joe Courtney (D) 49
Rob Simmons, representing the eastern half of Connecticut, is currently the only Haverford alum in Congress. He also served in the CIA, and he's the closest House Republican to where I grew up in Rhode Island. He's fairly moderate for a congressional Republican these days, and he's trying to turn this race into a local referendum, since the efforts of Connecticut politicians helped save the Groton naval shipyard from closure. Joe Courtney, of course, is trying to turn this race into a referendum on the direction of the country in this Democratic-leaning district. Courtney ran against Simmons in 2002, taking 46% of the vote, and he's a better candidate this time. Still, Simmons knew he had a tough race. This is a Joe Lieberman special.

CT-04 (Republican-held)
Diane Farrell (D) 51 - Christopher Shays (R) 49
At this point, Shays might be the most prominent moderate Republican in Congress. In a sense, I kind of feel bad for the guy, because he clearly doesn't want to be the avid partisan that the current political environment forces him to be. He's been fairly duplicitous in his Iraq support, and he took a surprising and unnecessary cheap shot at Ted Kennedy in the aftermath of the Mark Foley scandal. Diane Farrell was a good candidate when she took 49% from him in 2004. Like Simmons (and Nancy Johnson below), Shays knew this was coming but I don't think his campaign can hold back the tide this time. This will also be an interesting case study to see if the New York Times endorsement can make a difference anywhere anymore; many people in this affluent suburban district read the Times as their local newspaper, and this is the first time in his 20-year congressional career that the Times has failed to endorse Shays in a contested reelection.

CT-05 (Republican-held)
Chris Murphy (D) 53 - Nancy Johnson (R) 45
Oddly, this race started off as the least competitive of Connecticut's three contested House races, and now it looks like Murphy has the best shot of taking out a Republican incumbent in the state this year. He's ridiculously young (he's something like a 32-year-old state senator) and he had a steep hill in challenging the moderate, well-funded Johnson, who has studiously cultivated a non-threatening grandmotherly persona in her 24 years in Congress. Murphy has run a strong campaign, though, and his poll numbers have held steady despite being on the receiving end of a series of hard-hitting attacks. (Nancy Johnson was the first candidate to run the "24"-style ad that either intentionally misleads or doesn't understand the Democratic position on wiretapping without a warrant.) I've been surprised to discover how many longterm politicians end their careers by defeat rather than retirement, and unless Joe Lieberman finds enough 5th district Republicans to pull out to the polls, I think this may be Johnson's year.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 5:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Bill Ritter (D) 56 - Bob Beauprez (R) 41
By my count, Bob Beauprez is one of three Republican congressmen running for governor who have a serious chance of costing their party both the governor's race and their current congressional seat. That's fantastic. Colorado is trending blue, Beauprez turned out to be a surprisingly poor candidate, and this is a Democratic year. This race is not competitive.

CO-04 (Republican-held)
Angie Paccione (D) 50 - Marilyn Musgrave 48
Musgrave is by far the most charming member of Congress, not only being the lead House sponsor behind the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment but very, very accurately calling gay marriage the most serious problem in America today. So I'm not a fan of Marilyn Musgrave. I don't know Paccione as well, but she's run a good campaign. I heard (second-hand) how she tells a story about how when she became a state rep, she'd have a weekly Saturday constituent-concerns meeting in the back room of a restaurant. For weeks and weeks and weeks, she sat there alone as no one came in, but eventually constituents trickled in, and now there are a ton of people every week, some of whom are now her biggest supporters. I'm not sure what that story says (persistence? poor choice of restaurant?) but I still like it. I think Paccione will win, but if she doesn't, I like her chances in 2008. This district is trending blue.

CO-05 (Open, Republican-held)
Jay Fawcett (D) 48 - Doug Lamborn (R) 47
I'm picking a major upset here. This might be one of the most conservative districts in the country: Colorado Springs hosts not only the notoriously conservative Air Force Academy, but most of the top evangelical Christian organizations like James Dobson's Focus On The Family are based here too. That said, incumbent Republican Joel Hefley is retiring from Congress, and he's refused to endorse the Republican nominated to succeed him. Hefley is understandably bitter about losing his Ethics Committee chairmanship after failing to stonewall the Tom DeLay investigation, and his favored candidate lost the GOP primary. Jay Fawcett, the Democrat, is a military veteran and an aggressive campaigner, making him perhaps the only Democratic candidate who could take advantage of this year's Republican dissent within the district. The troubles of Mark Foley, David Kuo's recent book exposing Bush administration antipathy towards Christian conservatives, and the recent scandal involving Colorado Springs' own Ted Haggard may create the perfect storm for Democrats to pull that one out. (And for the record, I don't think anyone who saw Ted Haggard's cameo in Jesus Camp could be that surprised that he's hooked on meth. The gay prostitution thing, though, I did not see coming.)

CO-06 (Republican-held)
Tom Tancredo (R) 53 - Bill Winter (D) 46
Tom Tancredo is the leading activist on illegal immigration in Congress today. It would be unfair of me to call him outright racist, but he primarily advocates stricter enforcement measures. He says he'll run for president in 2008 if the other Republican candidates don't stand up on immigration. He's also pretty heavily conservative across the board, so knocking him off would be a lot of fun for Colorado progressives. Unfortunately, while I hear a lot of good things about Bill Winter, I don't think it's his time yet. Again, 2008 may tell a different story.

CO-07 (Open, Republican-held)
Ed Perlmutter (D) 54 - Rick O'Donnell (R) 45
This is the seat that Bob Beauprez is blowing as he loses the governor's race. Beauprez always had close races, and this district is trending Democrat too, so the Democratic pickup here shouldn't be a surprise. And while O'Donnell's campaign has gained strength in recent weeks, the dynamics of the district and the national environment have made it difficult for a Republican to win here. This was one of the first Republican-held districts conceded to the Democrats.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 5:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican-held)
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 55 - Phil Angelides (D) 42
Probably the national leader in combined letters in the major party candidates' last names, that's about as close to interesting as this race gets. Schwarzenegger was considered vulnerable about a year ago, but he hired a Democratic chief of staff, brought in top Bush-Cheney '04 alums for the campaign, and all of a sudden he's not considered incompetent anymore. Neither Angelides nor state controller Steve Westly seemed like an astonishingly great candidate, but they went at each other hard during the primary, which contributed to the problem here: the bitter primary left Democrats depressed and gave Schwarzenegger plenty of negative ammo for the inevitable "even Democrat Steve Westly says that Angelides ... " ads. Can California really not come up with better Democratic candidates?

CA-04 (Republican-held)
John Doolittle (R) 54 - Charles Brown (D) 45
When redistricting in 2001, the two parties in California explicitly reached an agreement that would protect incumbents of both parties, which is perhaps not a smart move when Democrats carry the state by a landslide in every presidential campaign. As a result, state has 53 congressional districts and only one of them wound up being seriously contested in 2004. (And even that one was decided by over ten points.) This year, though, the pro-Democratic environment is breaking some of these districts free. CA-04 is a late bloomer, it's a strong Republican district, and Democratic candidate Charles Brown has not been able to convince Snoopy to campaign with him. I fear this is a loss.

CA-11 (Republican-held)
Jerry McNerney (D) 51 - Richard Pombo (R) 48
Pombo is one of those Republicans you hate: knee-jerk Bush supporter, personally unlikeable and way too close to corrupt interests. National Democrats wanted to nominate Steve Filson, and when grassroots-powered candidate Jerry McNerney won an upset in the primary, the DC establishment begged off. McNerney has run an outstanding campaign, though, and now he's even leading in some polls. One of the lessons I'm going to try to learn from 2006 is how often candidates with an excited volunteer base can pull out a close race. I suspect that they'll be more effective at turning out the vote, and their enthusiasm will spread when their friends, family and colleagues find out that they're so excited about the Democrat running. I could be wrong, but that's why I'm predicting McNerney to pull this one out.

CA-45 (Republican-held)
Mary Bono (R) 59 - David Roth (D) 39
Some are saying this race could be competitive; I don't see it. Mary Bono, Sonny's last wife and heir to his congressional seat, is one of the few Scientologists in Congress. This David Roth was never a member of Van Halen.

CA-50 (Republican-held)
Brian Bilbray (R) 51 - Francine Busby (D) 45
This Republican-leaning district was in the news last June when these two candidates ran a competitive race to see who would succeed currently imprisoned Air Force "Top Gun" alum Duke Cunningham, whose publicly released prison letters show him a worse writer than I was at age eight. Bilbray won the special election by five percent, and while even-numbered special elections usually decide who will win the follow-up race in November, the souring national mood has apparently made this seat competitive again. I'm waiting to be convinced.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 5:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Mike Beebe (D) 56 - Asa Hutchinson (R) 42
I find the Republican side of this race a lot more interesting than the Democratic side. Outgoing Governor Mike Huckabee has an interesting resume. He's one of America's longest-serving governors, ascending in 1996 when Bill Clinton's successor went down on corruption charges, he's from the town of Hope just like the greatest president of the last half of the 20th century, he lost 100 pounds and wrote Quit Digging Your Grave with a Knife and Fork, and next year he's got a serious shot at becoming the preeminent socially conservative candidate in the Republican presidential primary field. Since he's not running for governor, the Republicans have put up former congressman Asa Hutchinson, whose brother Tim lost his Senate seat in 2002 for leaving his wife for one of his staffers. Asa was also the first under-secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, and he's a proud graduate of ... Bob Jones! (These Wikipedia entries are like gold.) In any event, Beebe is the state attorney general, and he's opened up a pretty wide lead. This isn't a guaranteed pickup, but it's close.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 4:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Senate (Republican-held)
Jim Kyl (R) 51 - Jim Pederson (D) 46
I was optimistic for this one back in 2005, since Pederson is both independently wealthy as a developer and the outgoing chair of the Arizona Democratic Party. I have this theory that former campaign staffers make better candidates (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Mark Warner...) but this campaign has not effectively demonstrated that theory. Over the past two years, Pederson has been on the air steadily but has only seen his numbers improve twice, once to get within the 10-12 point range and then again recently to put this race in the mid-to-high single digits. Unfortunately, the former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party somehow decided not to put money into a field campaign, so there's going to be no one in most of Arizona getting Democrats out to vote. That should cost him the election.

AZ-01 (Republican-held)
Rick Renzi (R) 53 - Ellen Simon (D) 45
In fairness, I don't know much about this race, although Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington calls Renzi one of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress. In 2004 Renzi was a top Democratic target, but it looked like he was going to have a relatively easy reelection this year until some recent polls have suggested that national Republican troubles could push Simon over the top. I'm still not sure I see it.

AZ-05 (Republican-held)
Harry Mitchell (D) 49 - J.D. Hayworth (R) 48
Hayworth is one of the slickest-looking Republicans in Congress. He's got ties to Abramoff, and one of his surrogates went to an event for Jewish women and said that Hayworth was a "more observant Jew" than many of the people there. Then when people started walking out on him, the surrogate said, "No wonder there are anti-Semites." That's good campaigning. Mitchell is another former state Democratic Party chairman (lot of them running in Arizona this year) and he's apparently turned this into a real close race. This is another "wave" election that likely needs a strong pro-Democratic national environment for Mitchell to win.

AZ-08 (Open, Republican-held)
Gabrielle Giffords (D) 56 - Randy Graf (R) 43
This one isn't really contested, but I'm throwing it in anyway. I don't know much about Giffords except that she's a state senator, but this race is awesome because Randy Graf is a true hero. He's ultra-conservative (what ever happened to "ultra-conservative" as a political epithet?) and running on one of those anti-immigration platforms that edges ever so closely to xenophobia. Also, in 2004, he ran against the sitting Republican, Jim Kolbe, who happens to be both moderate and the only openly gay Republican in Congress. So not only is Graf too conservative for the district, but the outgoing Republican congressman hates him and won't lift a finger for him. This one was over as soon as Graf won the primary; it was the first Republican congressional concession in the country.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 4:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Open, Republican-held):
Tony Knowles (D) 51 - Sarah Palin (R) 48
This is my first tough call. Incumbent Republican governor Frank Murkowski is unbelievably unpopular; apparently appointing his own daughter to replace him in the U.S. Senate made him unpopular but not her. When Sarah Palin beat him in the primary she was able to take the change message away from Knowles, who was governor from 1994-2002 and lost the 2004 Senate election to Murkowski's already appointed daughter. Knowles has been inching back up lately by making the experience argument, since Palin's only experience is being mayor of Wasilla, which you've never heard of because it has about 800 people. So, how wrong is it to point out that Sarah Palin might be the best-looking candidate for high office this year? I say "kind of." I still hope she loses.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 4:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Governor (Republican incumbent)
Bob Riley (R) 55 - Lucy Baxley (D) 42
You know, this was really going to be the most exciting governor's race in the country, and now all we have this. Riley, the Republican incumbent, proposed a tax increase via voter referendum in 2003, saying it was essentially un-Christian not to provide important social services for the less fortunate. (It's an open theological debate: poverty is only mentioned in the Bible 3000 times, casting doubt on whether Jesus meant it.) He faced a primary challenge from massively popular former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (yep, of Ten Commandments fame) who absolutely smote Riley in early 2005 polls but wound up not being that great a candidate, never seriously contesting the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, former Democratic governor Don Siegelman, who lost reelection in 2002 so closely that some suspect foul play, both ran for governor and defended himself from corruption charges at the same time. Not exactly the best way to stay on message, and he wound up losing the primary by a fair amount. The Democratic nominee, Lucy Baxley, seemed to have a shot at being the first Democratic woman elected governor of Alabama since Lurleen Wallace (hit that link, it's worth reading) but Riley has somehow rebounded in the polls. This one looks out of reach.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 4:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Welcome to my midterms election guide. I want to state a few general principles I have about this election, and then I'll list my predictions for all the competitive races I can see, with commentary as warranted.

I am optimistic every year, but this year I'm optimistic because of the size of the playing field. Regardless of how things turn out on Tuesday, I think this election will be remembered for being the year Democrats decided to play all across the country. The Republicans do this on the presidential level (in Bush's first quarter as a reelection candidate, they raised money from every county in the country) and they'll catch up eventually on the congressional front. For now, Democrats are contesting seats in districts without serious challenges in years. A lot of these candidates aren't going to win, but I think a lot of them will, and out of the group that falls short, many of them will come back to become top-tier challenges in 2008. So I think a four-year strategy puts Democrats in solid control of the House.

I feel the same way about the Senate. My official prediction for NYU's Midterm Madness has a 50-50 split, but 2008 has a ton of ripe GOP-held targets: Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia (potentially open), and New Mexico (potentially open), off the top of my head, are all going to be Democratic targets, and there may be more I'm forgetting. (OK, I went to Wikipedia, and I forgot Minnesota, which is easily a top target, and we also may be able to contest Tennessee, Georgia or South Carolina if we're feeling frisky. Kentucky too if Mitch McConnell turns to stone over the next couple of years.) Now, 2008 may well have some serious challenges to Democratic-held Senate seats too, but I'm optimistic that we can take back the Senate soon enough.

Finally, a lot of the seats Democrats are targeting are in blood-red Republican territory. Over at MyDD, Chris Bowers said, "Uber-red districts are fun to attack, but over the long-term we can't count on them." I think that's a short-term philosophy. He said it in reference to Texas' 22nd district, which will probably go for Democrat Nick Lampson, since he's running against a write-in candidate for Tom DeLay's old seat. Bowers is right that Lampson will probably only have the seat for one term, but that's not really the point. The point is that we're going to spend the next 20 years going after Republican-held districts literally all over the country, working on the ground and running strong Democratic candidates so that we slowly but surely turn these districts Democratic. It'll be hard to keep any Democrat in TX-22 for long in the current political climate, but if we keep pushing hard there, a long-term Democratic congressional seat may become viable. Again, it's not necessarily likely, but if we keep at it in all the rock-ribbed Republican districts, we'll win some of them.

I'll update this post when I'm done to count up my totals for everything. Until then, we're going race by race.

UPDATE: I counted them all up, and I believe Democrats will pick up nine governorships, 37 seats in the House, and 6 seats in the Senate. If this is true I will explode with joy.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 3:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm sorry, this Family Guy clip is impossibly funny.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 7:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This is ridiculous:

This morning on MSNBC, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) apologized for his comments on Monday. "Of course I'm sorry for the botched joke," he said, calling his comments "pretty stupid."

About hour later, Tony Snow said the following on CNBC:

All you have to do is say, I apologize. I said something, it came out wrong, I'm sorry. And instead, what Sen. Kerry has done, is he's tried to whip it into a big thing...

That's exactly what Kerry has said. According to the White House, the story is over.

That's just what I came up with in con law. We need to get on this and fast.

Posted by Terry McMahon at 1:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)