Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Alabama
Governor (Republican incumbent)
Bob Riley (R) 55 - Lucy Baxley (D) 42
You know, this was really going to be the most exciting governor's race in the country, and now all we have this. Riley, the Republican incumbent, proposed a tax increase via voter referendum in 2003, saying it was essentially un-Christian not to provide important social services for the less fortunate. (It's an open theological debate: poverty is only mentioned in the Bible 3000 times, casting doubt on whether Jesus meant it.) He faced a primary challenge from massively popular former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (yep, of Ten Commandments fame) who absolutely smote Riley in early 2005 polls but wound up not being that great a candidate, never seriously contesting the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, former Democratic governor Don Siegelman, who lost reelection in 2002 so closely that some suspect foul play, both ran for governor and defended himself from corruption charges at the same time. Not exactly the best way to stay on message, and he wound up losing the primary by a fair amount. The Democratic nominee, Lucy Baxley, seemed to have a shot at being the first Democratic woman elected governor of Alabama since Lurleen Wallace (hit that link, it's worth reading) but Riley has somehow rebounded in the polls. This one looks out of reach.