Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Illinois
Governor (Democratic-held)
Rod Blagojevich (D) 54 - Judy Baar Topinka (R) 43
If I had to put money on it, and there were some conclusive way of finding out, I'd say Blagojevich is probably corrupt. (I know, in Chicago politics?) Still, the Illinois Republican Party has been dysfunctional for years (remember when they chose Alan Keyes to run for Senate over someone who actually lived in Illinois?) and since no top-tier candidates chose to run, it fell upon state treasurer and GOP party chair Judy Baar Topinka not to get any traction running against Blagojevich. It's funny to think that after Blagojevich was first elected governoron in 2002, after serving one term in Congress, he openly discussed the possibility of running for president in 2008. You could call that less likely now that he's hardly throwing off Topinka in this heavily Democratic state.
IL-06 (Open, Republican-held)
Tammy Duckworth (D) 49 - Peter Roskam (R) 47
This is one of the more interesting races this year. The seat opened up when Henry Hyde decided to retire after an illustrious career of running the House impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 despite having had an affair himself. The Republican nominee was state senator Peter Roskam by acclimation, but Democrats had a more contentious primary between Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost both her legs in the war, and netroots-supported Christine Cegelis, who ran against Hyde in 2004. DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel hails from the bordering district and has made winning this race a priority, and he backed Duckworth in the primary. This not only raised the ire of Cegelis-supporting activists in the district, but it almost backfired completely when the woefully underfunded Cegelis almost won the primary. Local Democrats have mostly patched things up, but controversy remains: the DCCC just dropped a staggering three million dollars into the district which, win or lose, could have gone to better use elsewhere. So while my prediction may be wishful thinking, Duckworth really better pull this one out. (Also, the Republicans have accused Duckworth of being cut-and-run. Remember how when they accused another multiple amputee, Max Cleland, of being unpatriotic, it was news?)
IL-08 (Democratic-held)
Melissa Bean (D) 51 - David McSweeney (R) 48
Hey, look, another Republican pickup opportunity! Melissa Bean won in 2004 by beating 35-year incumbent Phil Crane, arguing that he took too many taxpayer-funded junkets and had ignored this Republican-leaning district. Crane, indeed, turned out to be a weak campaigner, and Bean pulled it out. She's had a hard time staying moderate in this conservative district without alienating the progressive base; she lost a lot of union support by voting for the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Still, she's raised a ton of money, which in this expensive Chicago-area district may be enough to send her back for another term. I think if she wins this time she'll be in there for a while.
IL-10 (Republican-held)
Mark Kirk (R) 52 - Dan Seals (D) 47
Dan Seals has often been compared to Barack Obama, another African-American Illinois Democrat whose nonthreatening mainstream appeal is fueling his rise to high office. It's a lot to ask of the guy, since Seals is still an underdog congressional challenger and Obama has won the hearts of Democrats throughout the country, but eventually it may prove pretty accurate. Seals' campaign has only caught national attention recently, but he has been invigorating activists in this suburban Illinois district for months now. I suspect he'll get the win in 2008.