Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Iowa
Governor (Open, Democratic-held)
Chet Culver (D) 52 - Jim Nussle (R) 47
Some prominent Democratic bloggers believe that viable presidential candidates should have built up significant Democratic operations in their home states before running for national office, with one major example being that outgoing Iowa governor Tom Vilsack should be able to guarantee that Chet Culver will succeed him. I don't think that's fair - there's a lot more to campaigning than the health of the party establishment - but it looks like Culver will still pull this one out. Labeled a lackluster candidate at the start of the cycle, Culver's 2006 performance has impressed many observers and Nussle, a sitting congressman, has problems of his own after voting for all that garbage proposed by the Republican House. Nussle is the third Republican congressman who might lose both the governor's race and the seat he already holds.
IA-01 (Open, Republican-held)
Bruce Braley (D) 53 - Mike Whalen (R) 46
This is Nussle's seat, and a few months ago it was considered a top Democratic pickup opportunity. The likelihood of the seat flipping hasn't changed since then so much as other seats have become more likely to turn. Still, it's not a guaranteed Democratic victory. That said, the district leans Democratic, and without an existing Republican incumbent it's a lot easier to convince voters to switch.
IA-02 (Republican-held)
Jim Leach (R) 55 - David Loebsack (D) 43
A lot of people are claiming Loebsack has a serious shot here, but I haven't seen it.
IA-03 (Democratic-held)
Leonard Boswell (D) 54 - Jeff Lamberti (R) 46
Until the Georgia races turned sour, this was considered the best chance of a Republican pickup in the country due to Boswell's health concerns in 2005. Given that Boswell has apparently made a full-enough-for-political-work recovery, that argument has lessened, but Lamberti is a strong candidate and the current Republican leader in the Iowa Senate. Still, Boswell has been around for a while, so I suspect other races will be closer.