Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Kansas
Governor (Democratic-held)
Kathleen Sebelius (D) 55 - Jim Barnett (R) 45
This race is widely expected to be a landslide, but I think it will be closer due to Kansas' sharp Republican tilt. Sebelius has done a remarkable job of exploiting the acrimonious disputes between Kansas' moderate business-oriented Republicans and the Christian conservatives who make up most of the party base. In 2002 Sebelius rode Republican intraparty dissent into the state house, and since then she has convinced several prominent moderate Republicans to switch parties and run as Democrats. That track record has led Markos Moulitsas of DailyKos to suggest that she should be a leading candidate for vice president in 2008.
KS-02 (Republican-held)
Nancy Boyda (D) 50 - Jim Ryun (R) 49
I am rating this as a Democratic pickup mostly because I so desperately want to believe, though several polls bear me out. This race is curious: it is certainly a Republican district, represented by former world-record mile runner and Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year Jim Ryun, the only politician I know of who has apparently spoken in tongues at a campaign rally. Nancy Boyda made a semi-competitive challenge against Ryun in 2004, but until recently I hadn't heard of anyone who thought this race was a serious pickup opportunity this year. Then, all of a sudden, the DCCC dropped a ton of money in the district, claiming they had been intending to compete here all along and wanted to catch the Republicans off-guard. I'm not sure I believe that (they said the same thing, even less credibly, in the 2005 Paul Hackett special election in Ohio's 2nd) but I am glad they're competing here. A win here would give Democrats a majority in Kansas' House delegation.