Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Maryland
Governor (Republican-held)
Robert Erlich (R) 51 - Martin O'Malley (D) 49
This is a tough one to call: O'Malley had a big lead for a long time, but Erlich successfully used his financial advantage to narrow the gap, criticizing O'Malley's crime record as mayor of Baltimore. Many African-Americans will be voting Republican for Senate, but will they vote for a Republican for governor? I really hope the Democratic lean of the state in this Democratic year pays off for O'Malley, but I no longer believe that will happen.
Senate (Open, Democratic-held)
Ben Cardin (D) 52 - Michael Steele (R) 47
This one is much closer than it should be. I'm not a huge fan of Michael Steele, but he's charming. He ran a pretty good ad saying that Democrats were going to attack him so much they'd even say he hates puppies even though he actually loves puppies. (He even held up a puppy on camera.) The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee responded with an equally smooth ad saying, "It's great that Michael Steele loves puppies. You know who else Michael Steele loves? George W. Bush." That said, this campaign isn't all fun and games, and I think it's the Republicans' best chance for a Senate pickup. Steele is African-American, and a lot of normally Democratic African-Americans in Maryland are upset that the Democratic Party hasn't paid them enough attention and run enough African-American candidates. It doesn't help that an African-American candidate lost the Democratic primary. So while Maryland is a Democratic state, it won't be as easy for Cardin as we would have hoped. I still think he pulls it out.
MD-01 (Republican-held)
Roscoe Bartlett (R) 56 - Andrew Duck (D) 42
Wishful thinking, at least this year. Duck has a nice resume (he's been a leader in the group of Iraq vets running for Congress as Democrats) and I think he'll be back.