Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Arizona
Senate (Republican-held)
Jim Kyl (R) 51 - Jim Pederson (D) 46
I was optimistic for this one back in 2005, since Pederson is both independently wealthy as a developer and the outgoing chair of the Arizona Democratic Party. I have this theory that former campaign staffers make better candidates (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Mark Warner...) but this campaign has not effectively demonstrated that theory. Over the past two years, Pederson has been on the air steadily but has only seen his numbers improve twice, once to get within the 10-12 point range and then again recently to put this race in the mid-to-high single digits. Unfortunately, the former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party somehow decided not to put money into a field campaign, so there's going to be no one in most of Arizona getting Democrats out to vote. That should cost him the election.
AZ-01 (Republican-held)
Rick Renzi (R) 53 - Ellen Simon (D) 45
In fairness, I don't know much about this race, although Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington calls Renzi one of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress. In 2004 Renzi was a top Democratic target, but it looked like he was going to have a relatively easy reelection this year until some recent polls have suggested that national Republican troubles could push Simon over the top. I'm still not sure I see it.
AZ-05 (Republican-held)
Harry Mitchell (D) 49 - J.D. Hayworth (R) 48
Hayworth is one of the slickest-looking Republicans in Congress. He's got ties to Abramoff, and one of his surrogates went to an event for Jewish women and said that Hayworth was a "more observant Jew" than many of the people there. Then when people started walking out on him, the surrogate said, "No wonder there are anti-Semites." That's good campaigning. Mitchell is another former state Democratic Party chairman (lot of them running in Arizona this year) and he's apparently turned this into a real close race. This is another "wave" election that likely needs a strong pro-Democratic national environment for Mitchell to win.
AZ-08 (Open, Republican-held)
Gabrielle Giffords (D) 56 - Randy Graf (R) 43
This one isn't really contested, but I'm throwing it in anyway. I don't know much about Giffords except that she's a state senator, but this race is awesome because Randy Graf is a true hero. He's ultra-conservative (what ever happened to "ultra-conservative" as a political epithet?) and running on one of those anti-immigration platforms that edges ever so closely to xenophobia. Also, in 2004, he ran against the sitting Republican, Jim Kolbe, who happens to be both moderate and the only openly gay Republican in Congress. So not only is Graf too conservative for the district, but the outgoing Republican congressman hates him and won't lift a finger for him. This one was over as soon as Graf won the primary; it was the first Republican congressional concession in the country.