Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Michigan
Governor (Democratic-held)
Jennifer Granholm (D) 53 - Dick DeVos (R) 46
When Granholm won in 2002, she was considered the Democratic rationale for repealing the native-born requirement for the presidency: polished as a campaigner, a skilled leader, and governor of a swing state, she looked like everything Democrats would want in a president, except she was born in Canada and thus ineligible. Since then, economic turmoil in Michigan, notably hemorrhages at the Detroit auto makers, has put her reelection in doubt; at one point making her the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent of anyone on this list. Since then, however, she's mounted a comeback, blaming Bush instead of herself for the area's economic concerns and accusing her opponent, businessman Dick DeVos, of outsourcing Michigan jobs. She took a strategic risk in not running ads even when she fell 6-8 points behind DeVos in early summer, but her decision to save her money for the fall seems to have paid off.
Senate (Democratic-held)
Debbie Stabenow (D) 52 - Michael Bouchard (R) 47
Stabenow dodged a bullet when Secretary of State Candice Miller decided not to challenge her, but she still faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. I'm not sure what Bouchard's qualifications for high office are, but he ran suburban-humorous ads involving his family and seems a fairly likable guy, while Stabenow is still not well known as a leader in Washington. I think this one will be closer than many predict, but Stabenow does know how to campaign, having taken out a GOP incumbent in 2000, and she'll pull this one out.
MI-11 (Republican-held)
Thaddeus McCotter (R) 60 - Tony Trupiano (D) 40
I know virtually nothing about this race, but some people think it's competitive. I haven't seen it.