Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Minnesota
Governor (Republican-held)
Mike Hatch (D) 52 - Tim Pawlenty (R) 47
I was unclear in recent years whether Tim Pawlenty was readying himself for a 2008 presidential run or not, which probably means that he was hoping to be picked as VP. While he doesn't have a ton of scandal to his name, the anti-Republican national mood, combined with a surprisingly lackluster Republican Senate effort, has him in more serious trouble than even my prediction suggests. Mike Hatch is the AG and has been prepping a higher run for a long time; it looks like he's made the most of it.
Senate (Open, Democratic-held)
Amy Klobuchar (D) 60 - Mark Kennedy (R) 39
This race has been weird since the start. Incumbent Mark Dayton declined to run for a second term: his poll numbers looked poor, he didn't seem to enjoy the Senate, and while he could afford to self-fund his 2000 campaign, he couldn't do it again. This race is a rare example of a retirement helping the party, even if I was surprised that Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County Attorney, had what it took for a Senate run. I mean, a county DA? Amusingly enough, the GOP ran nothing but a resume in Mark Kennedy, one of those fresh-faced, moderate-looking but conservative-voting guys they keep throwing out there who keep winning. Despite being the GOP's prize recruit early in the cycle, his campaign never got off the ground. Klobuchar succeeded in driving out most of her primary opponents even before primary day, and her lead against Kennedy grew ever since. She's a terrific campaigner, an appealing person, and a solid Democrat. She has very effectively used her prosecutorial experience to portray herself as a fighter. I'm a fan.
MN-01 (Republican-held)
Gil Gutknecht (R) 51 - Tim Walz (D) 48
I'm sorry to predict the race this way. Gutknecht has consistently underperformed presidential vote totals in his district, and Tim Walz is one of my favorite Democratic recruits this cycle. He's both a high-school teacher and a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, but I don't think he's got this one this time out. Hopefully he'll stick with us for 2008.
MN-02 (Republican-held)
John Kline (R) 55 - Colleen Rowley (D) 44
It's not often that parties can recruit a Time Person of the Year to run for Congress, but we have one of the honorees from that Whistleblower year on our side this time. Unfortunately, she's pretty liberal and running in a conservative district, so I'm not sure she can keep it close.
MN-06 (Open, Republican-held)
Michele Bachmann (R) 50 - Patty Wetterling (D) 49
This is Patty Wetterling's second run for this seat, having kept Mark Kennedy's 2004 House reelection campaign close until the end. When Kennedy decided to run for Senate, she did the same. That was clearly a mistake, since Kennedy's House retirement made his seat much more competitive, but Wetterling eventually wised up and dropped out to run for the House again. Polls alternated between showing leads for her or for her opponent, theocrat state senator Michele Bachmann. Wetterling was one of the only candidates to run ads against Mark Foley; Wetterling's son was abducted at gunpoint by a masked man who forced the son and his friends to state their ages and then he kidnapped her son, the youngest. The son has not been heard from since, and Wetterling and her husband have been active nationally in child-abduction issues. She wouldn't take any crap about Foley.