Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Missouri
Senate (Republican-held)
Claire McCaskill (D) 51 - Jim Talent (R) 49
The Democrats pulled a major coup by recruiting McCaskill, who lost the governor's race in 2004 and, given the unpopularity of the Republican who won, she would probably win the 2008 rematch she was rumored to covet. Having been convinced to run for Senate, she has put in a skilled and enthusiastic run. From the day she announced, almost every poll has shown this race to be within three points or less, and it will be decided by the GOTV efforts going on while I spend my time writing a campaign analysis. I think Democratic enthusiasm will be higher, plus there will be stem-cell and minimum-wage initiatives on the ballot that may or may not turn out more Democrats but may remind them what they don't like about Republicans.