Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Nevada
Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Dina Titus (D) 54 - Jim Gibbons (R) 45
This race was going to wind up Republican by 8-10 points until it turned out that Jim Gibbons assaulted a cocktail waitress (last month!) and tried to cover it up. That hurt his campaign. Incidentally, Nevada has been the fastest-growing state in the union for about 18 years in a row, and yet they still only have three congressional districts. Also, the revision to the Democratic primary schedule puts a caucus in Nevada between Iowa and New Hampshire, making this state (and the prominent Democrats therein) a major player for 2008. Politically the state is dominated by the UNITE-HERE union that supported John Edwards last time. (Woo!)
Senate (Republican-held)
John Ensign (R) 58 - Jack Carter (D) 41
I was hoping this seat would become more competitive. Jack Carter is indeed the son of our 39th president.
NV-02 (Open, Republican-held)
Dean Heller (R) 53 - Jill Derby (D) 47
First off, take a look at the size of this district. Yikes! Anyway, now that I look at it, Jim Gibbons may be Republican congressman #4 to lose the party both the governor's office and his own seat in Congress. Derby is apparently a really terrific candidate, but this is a pretty conservative district. In fact, apparently Nevada Republicans are focusing their volunteers on NV-03, figuring that even if they lose this district to Derby, they'll be able to take it back in 2008.
NV-03 (Republican-held)
Jon Porter (R) 52 - Tessa Hafen (D) 47
This race is mostly competitive because Tessa Hafen has a lot of support in Washington: before running for Congress, she was press secretary for Senate Minority Leader (and Nevada's senior senator) Harry Reid. So Reid clearly has a personal interest in winning this one in a way he doesn't for the Senate race (where he has a very positive working relationship with incumbent Republican John Ensign). I still think Hafen falls short.