Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: New Hampshire
Governor (Democratic-held)
John Lynch (D) 69 - Jim Coburn (R) 28
It's worth noting that in supposedly Republican New Hampshire, Democratic presidential candidates have carried this state three of the last four elections (losing only when Ralph Nader's total far exceeded Bush's margin over Al Gore) and Democrats have won four of the last five gubernatorial elections (naturally, losing only when I was working on the campaign). The story is pretty funny: Republican Craig Benson won in 2002, claiming that he would bring business sense and "a clean sheet of paper" to New Hampshire state government even though his business had actually peaked in 1996 and had since hemorrhaged 90% of its jobs. (It's now gone.) No elected Democrat could seriously challenge Benson's $600 million warchest in 2004, so the Democrats lucked out with John Lynch, a former state Democratic Party executive director who had become a businessman himself, specializing in reviving failing businesses. He beat Benson in a close race by running on bipartisanship, a promise he kept while in office, and no serious Republican challenger ran against him. This closely parallels the tenure of Jeanne Shaheen, who became governor in 1996 and also won her first reelection in a landslide. She won again in 2000 before losing a 2002 Senate run against John Sununu (who I hope she beats in a rematch in 2008).
NH-01 (Republican-held)
Jeb Bradley (R) 54 - Carol Shea-Porter (D) 45
Shea-Porter is an alum of the Wesley Clark operation in New Hampshire who followed Jeb Bradley to all his town hall meetings throughout the district in 2005 and then decided to challenge him herself. Relying on a devoted band of followers and little else, she upset the state House Democratic Leader in the primary. Unfortunately, that accomplishment is mitigated by the nature of the primary, which besides being more partisan also had minimal turnout, making it easier for an activist base to win. A general election win takes a lot more.
NH-02 (Republican-held)
Paul Hodes (D) 52 - Charlie Bass (R) 47
Bass is one of those candidates who supposedly always has a tough challenger and yet wins by an increasing margin every year. That luck will run out this year in his rematch against Paul Hodes, who claims now that his 2004 run was done entirely so that John Kerry would have someone else helping the Democratic ticket in the 2nd district. New Hampshire is trending Democratic to the point where the 2nd (generally the western half of the state) may actually lean that way, and Hodes is a stronger candidate this time. For the record, I was surprised when Bass said that Bernie Sanders supporters in Vermont should all move back to the Bronx and drive taxis; I don't agree with his politics but, unlike a lot of Republicans, I never thought he was that kind of asshole that would openly resort to that kind of state-level xenophobia. (Amusingly, he started the remark by saying that he hadn't been drinking.)