Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: New Jersey
Senate (Democratic-held)
Bob Menendez (D) 53 - Tom Kean Jr. (R) 47
This is the seat that Jon Corzine won in 2000 and then abandoned to run for governor in 2005. He appointed Menendez to finish his term, and now Menendez is trying to win it for himself. I've been hearing that New Jersey Democratic politics is unbelievably corrupt, but Democratic blogs have pushed back that it's more of a gossip-heavy state than a pay-to-play one and that Menendez really is the best local-boy-makes-good story in Congress. New Jersey has a reputation as a Democratic state, but major elections recently have all wound up closer than everyone expected, with the Democrat pulling it out at the last minute: Corzine in 2000, Jim McGreevey for governor in 2001, Frank Lautenberg for Senate in 2002, the presidential election in 2004, Corzine in 2005, and hopefully now Menendez. Tom Kean Jr. is the son of a very popular former governor and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission; the Keans have been called the Bush family of New Jersey for their hereditary politics and hypercompetitive, elitist personalities. This race has trended Democratic over the past week.
NJ-07 (Republican-held)
Mike Ferguson (R) 56 - Linda Stender (D) 44
Stender was a popular candidate among a lot of progressive bloggers early in the cycle but she seems not to have manifested too serious a threat here.