Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: New York
Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Eliot Spitzer (D) 70 - John Faso (R) 27
Given that I worked for the New York Attorney General's office this summer, does this finally mean I've been on a winning campaign? I say no. Spitzer is probably my second favorite politician behind John Edwards.
Senate (Democratic-held)
Hillary Clinton (D) 63 - John Spencer (R) 34
I love how Senator Clinton polls better when her middle name is included, because somehow Hillary Rodham Clinton is a moderate and Hillary Clinton is a raving lunatic. The theory is that the massive landslides at the top of the ticket will help Democrats in close congressional and state senate races. Senator Clinton is currently my #3 choice for president in 2008 behind Edwards and Obama.
Comptroller (Democrat-held)
Alan Hevesi (D) 49 - Chris Callaghan (R) 48
Hevesi is corrupt and entitled, and Callaghan is a Republican. How am I to choose?
NY-03 (Republican-held)
Peter King (R) 57 - Dave Mejias (D) 41
This is one of those races that Democratic bloggers think will be closely contested, but I don't see where that comes from. During a debate this year, King said that Mejias is supported by "radical organizations" like the AARP and the NAACP. What an all-star!
NY-19 (Republican-held)
John Hall (D) 52 - Sue Kelly (R) 47
John Hall is the former lead singer of Orleans, who had hits back in the 70s with "Still The One" ("we're still having fun, and you're still the one") and "Dance With Me." He would be the only member of Congress who has appeared shirtless on a major-label album cover.
NY-20 (Republican-held)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 54 - John Sweeney (R) 46
Now, don't get me wrong, it's hard not to like John Sweeney: he showed up at some frat party uninvited earlier this year, hammered already, and started hitting on girls. While there are certainly more acceptable ways for congressmen to hit on college-aged girls (hint: they're interns, they work on the Hill and they're attracted to power), Sweeney really topped himself last month: the October Surprise in this race is that Sweeney's wife once put in a 911 call and reported that he was physically abusing her. Yep, that's what Congress gets you these days. Fortunately, Sweeney's opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, is capable, charming, and a partner at a NYC law firm at which I absolutely could not have received an offer. Polling here has fluctuated like mad, but the latest shows Gillibrand leading. She'll be a terrific member of Congress.
NY-24 (Open, Republican-held)
Mike Arcuri (D) 52 - Ray Meier (R) 47
Arcuri is the Oneida County DA; I don't know if Oneida is a major county or what but it seems like it's a party in some case I'm reading every other week. Apparently Arcuri is one of DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel's favorite candidates this cycle.
NY-25 (Republican-held)
Jim Walsh (R) 53 - Dan Maffei (D) 46
I don't think this race has gotten as much traction as a lot of the others in New York. New York has a reputation as having a very conservative upstate with liberal urban pockets that wind up tilting the balance (given that NYC makes up half the state's population) to make the state heavily Democratic in presidential contests. The state is trending even bluer, though, to the point where there are very few Republican congressional incumbents in New York who won't be seriously threatened every year until they retire.
NY-26 (Republican-held)
Tom Reynolds (R) 54 - Jack Davis (D) 46
This was going to be a fun pickup, since Tom Reynolds is the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee and it would be hilarious if he lost his own race. Reynolds was one of the three or four members of House leadership who covered up the Foley scandal, too, so it looked like we'd have a real shot to take him out, especially since the Democrat, Jack Davis, is a self-funding candidate who was already doing fairly well in the polls. Unfortunately - and this is true - Davis refuses to go out and actually campaign, doing nothing but run TV ads. It didn't work for Steve Forbes, and it won't work for you. Apparently Davis is an "eccentric billionaire." Maybe next time we can get one with some political sense?
NY-29 (Republican-held)
Eric Massa (D) 50 - Randy Kuhl (R) 49
Kuhl is a freshman incumbent and the only member of Congress who has pulled a shotgun on his (now surprisingly ex-)wife during a dinner party. Massa is a former Republican and 24-year Navy veteran who became a fan of Wesley Clark when he was one of Clark's aides when Clark was Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Massa became involved in Clark's presidential campaign, switched to the Democratic Party himself, and now he's running for Congress. Polls here go back and forth too but I'm pretty optimistic that Massa can pull off the upset.