Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Rhode Island
Governor (Republican-held)
Don Carcieri (R) 53 - Charlie Fogarty (D) 45
Republicans have held the governor's office in Rhode Island for 16 of the last 20 years, and it looks like they're going to win their fourth election in a row here. Carcieri's presence in the governor's office can be chalked up largely to Myrth York, who ran for governor in an open-seat year in 1994 and lost. If someone loses an election, I think there's a very strong presumption against supporting them for a second run, especially in such a Democratic-leaning state such as Rhode Island, unless that candidate can make a strong argument that they deserve another shot. If you've made the first serious Democratic run in your district in years, I say a second try is warranted. If you blew it against Lincoln Almond, you probably don't. Somehow Myrth York got the nomination in 1998 for a second run against Almond, and she lost that too, ending her political career. Or so you'd think. She ran again in 2002, beating out two candidates who definitely would have beaten Republican businessman Carcieri. York's popularity, however, maxes out at 45 percent, so Carcieri has been governor for four years. I never understand how stronger Democratic candidates don't run in such a Democratic-leaning state; there's nothing specifically wrong with Fogarty but there has to be a more compelling figure in state government. (I wonder what would have happened if Matt Brown had run?) I suspect the strong Democratic lean makes being a major player at the state house so appealing that no one wants to risk a higher run. In any event, this race has trended Republican, and I'm afraid Carcieri looks to retain.
Senate (Republican-held)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 52 - Lincoln Chafee (R) 47
This Senate seat has been the bete noire of the Democratic Party for thirty years now, as Lincoln Chafee and his father John have beaten back everything the Democrats have thrown at them. Lincoln Chafee is even more liberal than his father, but he's a weaker politician too. Democrats were dealt an unfortunate hand in 1999 when the senior Chafee passed away, so instead of Lincoln running for the open seat his father had already decided to vacate, Lincoln was appointed to the Senate seat and went in with the presumption of incumbency. That said, though, the petulant Democratic Party establishment deserves some of the blame too for sitting on their hands when their preferred candidate lost the primary (and to a sitting congressman too, not even someone crazy). This time, however, my favorite candidate, Matt Brown, wasn't able to reach the primary when a poorly handled campaign finance scandal doomed his campaign. I had no great challenge throwing my support to either the excellent Sheldon Whitehouse or his awesome slogan ("Finally, a Whitehouse in Washington we can trust"), and I was thrilled when Whitehouse opened up an 8-10 point lead earlier in the fall. Again, Democrats always think we can beat Chafee, and it never happens. Much to my horror, Chafee has almost entirely closed the gap and might actually pull this one out again. Still, I think the jig is up.