Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Tennessee
Senate (Open, Republican-held)
Bob Corker (R) 54 - Harold Ford Jr. (D) 46
Well, at least Bill Frist is leaving the Senate. This has been an ugly race, with blatant racial suggestions on the part of the Corker campaign and the Republican National Committee to remind Tennessee voters that all Harold Ford wants to do is seduce white women. Besides being morally reprehensible, it's a shame because Harold Ford is a terrific Senate candidate: a good guy ideologically in line with the state who is running a fantastic campaign. His ads are actually charming and actually funny, to the point where an African-American Democrat has a serious shot at winning this state that Bush won in a walk in 2004. That, unfortunately, is the problem; even if this race weren't trending away from Ford, it's well established that minority candidates underperform their poll numbers in conservative states. It happened to Doug Wilder in Virginia and it happened to Bobby Jindal in Louisiana. I think some of the polls we've seen are outliers but I don't think Ford will make up the gap.