Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Texas
Governor (Republican-held)
Rick Perry (R) 38 - Chris Bell (D) 25 - Carole Strayhorn (I) 24 - Kinky Friedman (I) 11
This is a weird one; it looks like Perry is going to win reelection despite staying under 40 (and if anything my prediction is high). Bell only served one term in Congress, and I think he looks artificially competitive here because he would have the support of all knee-jerk Democrats anyway. (In other words, if his support in a two-way race topped out at 35, here it wouldn't show up.) Strayhorn is Scott McClellan's mom, and she dropped out of the Republican primary to run as an independent when it became clear she wouldn't win. Kinky Friedman is a comedic country singer who is a dilettante at best; he's one of those guys who thinks being unbelievably offensive is inherently funny to everyone except people who "can't take a joke." Finally, Rick Perry's slogan is a ridiculously jingoistic "I'm proud of Texas. How 'bout you?" I can't wait until Texas is competitive again.
TX-17 (Democratic-held)
Chet Edwards (D) 54 - Van Taylor (R) 46
Edwards is the last Democrat standing from the 2003 Republican re-redistricting; all other targets went down in 2004 and to some pretty awful people. Taylor was considered a prize recruit for the Republicans given that he's an Iraq War vet and every other Iraq War vet is running as a Democrat. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Taylor has campaigned like a guy who went to Iraq and still thinks the Republicans are doing a good job. Still, because of the demographics of the district I'm picking this one to be fairly close. I hope Democrats have someone to replace Edwards when he retires.
TX-22 (Open, Republican-held)
Nick Lampson (D) 53 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) 41
This might be the toughest race to predict in the country. This is Tom DeLay's old seat, which in a botched withdrawal now can only go Republican via write-in. Republicans have mostly coalesced around Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a Houston City Councilor, and in Texas intent counts for write-ins, so even something like "SSG" would count for Sekula-Gibbs. Still, she better hope people remember her name and even to write her in at all. Republicans claim that the district is well-educated and point to a poll showing Lampson only leading a write-in candidate 36-35, but I think that's is a bridge too far.