Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Washington
Senate (Democratic-held)
Maria Cantwell (D) 53 - Mike McGavick (R) 47
Cantwell is a former congresswoman who lost, went to Real Networks before it got big, and then ran for Senate in 2000, barely squeezing out longtime Republican incumbent Slade "Skeletor" Gorton. She had some problems early in her reelection campaign when peace activists started loudly opposing her support for the Iraq war, and then she got a potentially dangerous challenge from Safeco CEO Mike McGavick, who not only self-funded but was Gorton's former chief of staff, suggesting he knows a little about politics too. McGavick turned out not to know everything about politics; he decided to acknowledge an old DUI that he knew would come out eventually so he could set the terms of the debate himself, but he omitted some stuff and misled on some other stuff. That blunted all his momentum, and he was never able to get it back. I don't think this will be a landslide, but I think Cantwell has it. By the way, Maria Cantwell is a big supporter of Jerry Springer's political campaigns, having worked for him when he was mayor of Cincinnati. True story.
WA-05 (Republican-held)
Cathy McMorris (R) 53 - Peter Goldmark (D) 46
Peter Goldmark is the best Haverford alum running for Congress this cycle; he's a rancher with a doctorate in molecular biology from Harvard and he came up with a better strain of wheat to use on his farm. That's good Democrat. Unfortunately, this is a conservative district, and even though McMorris is only a freshman herself, I think we need some more time to make inroads here.
WA-08 (Republican-held)
Dave Reichert (R) 52 - Darcy Burner (D) 48
Darcy Burner is one of everyone's favorite candidates this year; she's a former Microsoft executive running an unbelievable campaign for a first-time candidate and supposedly she's ridiculously funny in person. Reichert is a former sheriff who caught the Green River Killer, but Burner has effectively tied him to Bush even though Reichert has only spent one term in Congress (maybe that Air Force One photo-op with the president wasn't a good idea). Two weeks ago I would have predicted Burner to win but her momentum seems to have slowed. I hope we haven't seen the last of her.