Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Colorado
Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Bill Ritter (D) 56 - Bob Beauprez (R) 41
By my count, Bob Beauprez is one of three Republican congressmen running for governor who have a serious chance of costing their party both the governor's race and their current congressional seat. That's fantastic. Colorado is trending blue, Beauprez turned out to be a surprisingly poor candidate, and this is a Democratic year. This race is not competitive.
CO-04 (Republican-held)
Angie Paccione (D) 50 - Marilyn Musgrave 48
Musgrave is by far the most charming member of Congress, not only being the lead House sponsor behind the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment but very, very accurately calling gay marriage the most serious problem in America today. So I'm not a fan of Marilyn Musgrave. I don't know Paccione as well, but she's run a good campaign. I heard (second-hand) how she tells a story about how when she became a state rep, she'd have a weekly Saturday constituent-concerns meeting in the back room of a restaurant. For weeks and weeks and weeks, she sat there alone as no one came in, but eventually constituents trickled in, and now there are a ton of people every week, some of whom are now her biggest supporters. I'm not sure what that story says (persistence? poor choice of restaurant?) but I still like it. I think Paccione will win, but if she doesn't, I like her chances in 2008. This district is trending blue.
CO-05 (Open, Republican-held)
Jay Fawcett (D) 48 - Doug Lamborn (R) 47
I'm picking a major upset here. This might be one of the most conservative districts in the country: Colorado Springs hosts not only the notoriously conservative Air Force Academy, but most of the top evangelical Christian organizations like James Dobson's Focus On The Family are based here too. That said, incumbent Republican Joel Hefley is retiring from Congress, and he's refused to endorse the Republican nominated to succeed him. Hefley is understandably bitter about losing his Ethics Committee chairmanship after failing to stonewall the Tom DeLay investigation, and his favored candidate lost the GOP primary. Jay Fawcett, the Democrat, is a military veteran and an aggressive campaigner, making him perhaps the only Democratic candidate who could take advantage of this year's Republican dissent within the district. The troubles of Mark Foley, David Kuo's recent book exposing Bush administration antipathy towards Christian conservatives, and the recent scandal involving Colorado Springs' own Ted Haggard may create the perfect storm for Democrats to pull that one out. (And for the record, I don't think anyone who saw Ted Haggard's cameo in Jesus Camp could be that surprised that he's hooked on meth. The gay prostitution thing, though, I did not see coming.)
CO-06 (Republican-held)
Tom Tancredo (R) 53 - Bill Winter (D) 46
Tom Tancredo is the leading activist on illegal immigration in Congress today. It would be unfair of me to call him outright racist, but he primarily advocates stricter enforcement measures. He says he'll run for president in 2008 if the other Republican candidates don't stand up on immigration. He's also pretty heavily conservative across the board, so knocking him off would be a lot of fun for Colorado progressives. Unfortunately, while I hear a lot of good things about Bill Winter, I don't think it's his time yet. Again, 2008 may tell a different story.
CO-07 (Open, Republican-held)
Ed Perlmutter (D) 54 - Rick O'Donnell (R) 45
This is the seat that Bob Beauprez is blowing as he loses the governor's race. Beauprez always had close races, and this district is trending Democrat too, so the Democratic pickup here shouldn't be a surprise. And while O'Donnell's campaign has gained strength in recent weeks, the dynamics of the district and the national environment have made it difficult for a Republican to win here. This was one of the first Republican-held districts conceded to the Democrats.