Terry's Elections Guide and Predictions: Connecticut
Senate (Democratic-held)
Joe Lieberman (CfL) 47 - Ned Lamont (D) 42 - Alan Schlesinger (R) 11
And this is the way the Connecticut Senate race ends, not with a bang but a whimper. Ugh. I think Chris Cillizza's awesome column The Fix had it right when he said that Lieberman's primary campaign was one of the worst in the country and his general-election campaign one of the best. The Lamont campaign had no post-primary plan, and that cost them as it gave Lieberman the political cover to stay in the race at all, as well as the opportunity to define himself as a statesman above trifling party concerns. It's tough to say if Lamont could have successfully tarred him as a sore loser only out for his own gain, or if Lieberman would have done this well regardless on account of the more moderate nature of the Connecticut general electorate. Towards the end of the campaign, the Lamont campaign had been hoping that Republican gadfly candidate Alan Schlesinger would peel Republican support away from Lieberman or that Lieberman's $387,000 petty-cash account (FEC rules say petty cash can't be more than a couple thousand or so) would build into a scandal. I doubt it on Schlesinger's part, and the fact that Lieberman is making substantial expenses that he's not reporting by labeling it "petty cash" doesn't seem to be resonating. Supposedly Lamont has a far superior turnout program, but even so, it looks like the Lamont train ends here. Finally, on a personal note, I can't cover this race without pointing out that putative Democrat Lieberman will only win this race by turning out Republican voters, seriously jeopardizing Democratic chances of picking up the three seriously contested House seats I describe below. If you ask me, Lieberman's refusal to say whether he prefers a Democratic or Republican House of Representatives, after all we've been through in the last six years that ostensibly led him to run for president, is final proof that he cares only about himself. I hope he leaves American politics sooner than later.
CT-02 (Republican-held)
Rob Simmons (R) 51 - Joe Courtney (D) 49
Rob Simmons, representing the eastern half of Connecticut, is currently the only Haverford alum in Congress. He also served in the CIA, and he's the closest House Republican to where I grew up in Rhode Island. He's fairly moderate for a congressional Republican these days, and he's trying to turn this race into a local referendum, since the efforts of Connecticut politicians helped save the Groton naval shipyard from closure. Joe Courtney, of course, is trying to turn this race into a referendum on the direction of the country in this Democratic-leaning district. Courtney ran against Simmons in 2002, taking 46% of the vote, and he's a better candidate this time. Still, Simmons knew he had a tough race. This is a Joe Lieberman special.
CT-04 (Republican-held)
Diane Farrell (D) 51 - Christopher Shays (R) 49
At this point, Shays might be the most prominent moderate Republican in Congress. In a sense, I kind of feel bad for the guy, because he clearly doesn't want to be the avid partisan that the current political environment forces him to be. He's been fairly duplicitous in his Iraq support, and he took a surprising and unnecessary cheap shot at Ted Kennedy in the aftermath of the Mark Foley scandal. Diane Farrell was a good candidate when she took 49% from him in 2004. Like Simmons (and Nancy Johnson below), Shays knew this was coming but I don't think his campaign can hold back the tide this time. This will also be an interesting case study to see if the New York Times endorsement can make a difference anywhere anymore; many people in this affluent suburban district read the Times as their local newspaper, and this is the first time in his 20-year congressional career that the Times has failed to endorse Shays in a contested reelection.
CT-05 (Republican-held)
Chris Murphy (D) 53 - Nancy Johnson (R) 45
Oddly, this race started off as the least competitive of Connecticut's three contested House races, and now it looks like Murphy has the best shot of taking out a Republican incumbent in the state this year. He's ridiculously young (he's something like a 32-year-old state senator) and he had a steep hill in challenging the moderate, well-funded Johnson, who has studiously cultivated a non-threatening grandmotherly persona in her 24 years in Congress. Murphy has run a strong campaign, though, and his poll numbers have held steady despite being on the receiving end of a series of hard-hitting attacks. (Nancy Johnson was the first candidate to run the "24"-style ad that either intentionally misleads or doesn't understand the Democratic position on wiretapping without a warrant.) I've been surprised to discover how many longterm politicians end their careers by defeat rather than retirement, and unless Joe Lieberman finds enough 5th district Republicans to pull out to the polls, I think this may be Johnson's year.