Terry McMahon's Awesome Blog

Governor (Open, Republican-held)
Charlie Crist (R) 52 - Jim Davis (D) 47
I really couldn't tell you what happened here. Crist never seemed to me to be that appealing a candidate: he revealed earlier this year that he had no idea what expressio unius was right as I was learning it myself my first year at law school, he's running in an unfavorable political climate, and I'm not sure why a semi-closeted Republican isn't facing more of a backlash when he's running in the same state the same year as Mark Foley. Crist had an enormous fundraising advantage over Davis, which some claim has made the difference, but the inoculation of this race from the troubles of national politics (I mean, come on, they're succeeding Jeb Bush here) really troubles me for what it says about the viability of Democrats in Florida politics. That all said, Davis has been closing the gap lately, so he may have a shot yet.

Senate (Democratic-held)
Bill Nelson (D) 61 - Katherine Harris (R) 37
I really, really hope this isn't the end of Katherine Harris's political career, because it turns out she's the best source of comic relief you can find in politics. I mean, her campaign has had it all: rank corruption, massive and repeated staff resignations, religious fanaticism, and inappropriately timed sexual suggestiveness. My favorite anecdote is the time her staffers got so frustrated at her ripping apart everything they wrote for her that they submitted a speech to her that she called "terrible." The speech, of course, was one that Harris had written herself months earlier. Much as I wish Katherine Harris 2000 had never existed, Katherine Harris 2006 has saved the Democrats a potentially vulnerable Senate seat. So we're a millionth of the way to being even!

FL-09 (Open, Republican-held)
Gus Bilirakis (R) 54 - Phyllis Busansky (D) 45
This race is apparently competitive, though I don't know much about it. That said, this seat is currently held by Republican Mike Bilirakis, and it's always charming when a son succeeds his father in Congress, so I hope we can pull this one out.

FL-13 (Open, Republican-held)
Christine Jennings (D) 52 - Vern Buchanan (R) 47
One of the underreported stories of the Katherine Harris saga is that she was never that popular to begin with, and both her elections to Congress have been closer than they should have been. Jennings lost in the primary last time, but she's a better candidate this time out and Democrats have a better chance of taking this seat now that Harris has left it open. Buchanan is your typical successful businessman who hates taxes and thinks he can do politics better than the people already doing it. We'll see if he's right or if he's another Morry Taylor.

FL-16 (Open, Republican-held)
Tim Mahoney (D) 52 - Joe Negron (R) 46
Yep, it's the race to win the protein-stained seat most recently held by Mark Foley. It looked like the Republican Party was dead in the water here, but this race has become competitive again now that the scandal has faded and the Republicans will have some form of polling-place notification that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. I actually like Mahoney to begin with, and hopefully his campaign has been strong enough to pull this one out. Here's my strategic question: do you attack Negron? Either you let him into Election Day as a guy without any negatives, or you risk alerting Foley-alienated Republican voters that they're not actually voting for Foley. It's a tough call.

FL-22 (Republican-held)
Ron Klein (D) 50 - Clay Shaw (R) 49
Klein has been the typical Democratic candidate the old-school way of doing things: raise a ton of money and convince DC operatives that you can win the race. He hasn't hit up the blogosphere to impress national Democratic activists, and I also don't know how energized activists in the district are for his campaign. That said, he does have a ton of money, and it's not hard to imagine him pulling this one out. Shaw has been pretty battle-tested over his two decades or so in Congress, and despite catching a break in 2004 when his credible opponent pulled out due to sickness, he seems to be pretty on-the-ball this time. Still, the race will be close. I changed this pick at the last minute.